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Why TXNM Stock advanced +0.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$58.70 +0.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.65

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.43B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $58.70 (+0.55% 1D, market cap $6.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 116 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #51 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?
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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.25B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, POR leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while POR leads on capital efficiency (6.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?
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Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.65 (-0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 22.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$68 Bull$57 Base$45 Bear
📬 FREE TXNM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TXNM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TXNM SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.9% FCF Margin ($488.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.8) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$58.57-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$58.49+0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$58.60+0.2% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$58.70-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TXNM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TXNM currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($58.32) and Max Pain ($61.64) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $67.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TXNM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TXNM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TXNM Stock advanced +0.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) advanced +0.55% to $58.70, trading at 79% of its 52-week range ($55.64 – $59.53). Stretched risk/reward at 38x P/E (4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 79% of its 52-week range ($55.64 – $59.53) with RSI-14 at 47.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±1.8% around $58.70 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $488.3M annual free cash flow.
Live TXNM Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Heat wave lifts TXNM Energy profits in third quarter

Profits at TXNM Energy, parent company of Public Service Company of New Mexico, jumped 25% in the third quarter compared with a year ago, the company said Friday. The quarter, which ran July through September, was marked

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TXNM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TXNM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TXNM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.83%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $58.65H $58.70L $58.38C $58.70VOL 967.8K
RES: $58.99SUP: $58.33SMA50: $58.32SMA200: $58.39
$59.80$58.67$57.55$56.42$55.29RES $58.99SUP $58.33$58.702026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TXNM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
29.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TXNM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TXNM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TXNM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TXNM)

Utilities Rank #51 of 116 ⚔️ BKH vs TXNM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (TXNM vs. BKH, ENIC, ORA, POR)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 116 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) ranks #51 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #49 by equity capitalization ($6.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, POR leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while POR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TXNM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TXNM ACTIVE
TXNM Energy Inc.
D+ 53/100 38.0x — 4.1% +0.55% $6.43B Benchmark Subject
BKH
Black Hills Corporation
D+ 53/100 21.3x — 5.1% +0.61% $6.25B /bkh-vs-txnm →
ENIC
Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )
D 45/100 — — — +2.66% $5.71B /enic-vs-txnm →
ORA
Ormat Technologies Inc.
E 31/100 44.7x 27.6% 3.4% +2.43% $5.52B /ora-vs-txnm →
POR
Portland General Electric Co
D- 41/100 12.0x — 6.1% +2.48% $5.29B /por-vs-txnm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001108426 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) reported GAAP revenue of $2.14B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.96B , and +11.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $169.8M, operating cash flow of $584.5M, and free cash flow of $488.3M (+16.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TXNM closed FY2025 with $12.06B in total assets against $5.12B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.80, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.14B $169.8M $584.5M $488.3M $12.06B $5.12B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.96B $258.7M $508.2M $420.0M $11.21B $4.31B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.91B $106.9M $551.2M $465.0M $3.55B $831.3M

3. TXNM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $58.70 (+0.55% 1D, market cap $6.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 116 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #51 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.25B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, POR leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while POR leads on capital efficiency (6.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?

Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TXNM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TXNM last traded at $58.70 (+0.55% on volume of 844,939 shares), positioning the stock +0.65% above its 50-day simple moving average ($58.32) and +0.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($58.39). Across its 52-week range of $55.64 to $59.53, TXNM sits at the 78.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($57.64 to $59.76).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TXNM — TXNM Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $58.70 (+0.55% 1D, market capitalization $6.43B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 20.6%, and free cash flow yield of 7.56%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 0.49x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.80, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.50x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

TXNM Energy Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Utilities sector, specifically Electric Utilities: Central. — (Products, customer base, and revenue model are not described in the source data.)

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) reported $2.14B in annual revenue (up from $1.96B in FY2024, +9.0% YoY) and $169.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.91B revenue, $106.9M net income) through FY2025, TXNM scaled operating cash flow to $584.5M and free cash flow to $488.3M, backed by $12.06B in total assets against $5.12B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.56% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $55.64 – $59.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 38.0x trailing P/E and 22.1x EV/EBITDA against 20.6% operating margins and a 0.49x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply chain: NONE; butterfly links: none; proprietary signals: none. Sector: Utilities; industry: Electric Utilities: Central.

  • Key Question #1: Can TXNM sustain or expand its 20.6% operating margin and 4.1% ROIC against Electric Utilities: Central peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.14B and free cash flow of $488.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $5.12B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TXNM's 35.3x forward P/E multiple to Utilities capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.49x)?

TXNM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TXNM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TXNM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $58.70?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TXNM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TXNM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $74.14 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (14/20) and a 7.56% FCF yield with a low 0.49 beta offer income-oriented support despite the rating.

Insider conviction (14/20) and a 7.56% FCF yield with a low 0.49 beta offer income-oriented support despite the rating.. When you look under the hood at TXNM, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 4.1% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $59.53. My 12M target is $74.14.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $58.38 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Utilities.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $44.37 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $58.38

A 0.8 Altman Z-Score, 1.5 Debt/Equity, and debt rising to $5.12B against a 38 trailing P/E leave the balance sheet and valuation vuln

Fading this rally in TXNM at $58.38. A 0.8 Altman Z-Score, 1.5 Debt/Equity, and debt rising to $5.12B against a 38 trailing P/E leave the balance sheet and valuation vulnerable.. With a beta of 0.49 and the stock sitting at $58.38 (52-wk range $55.64–$59.53), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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