Stock Ratings / Utilities / TXNM / options

BKH (53) ENIC (45) ORA (31) POR (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$58.38 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.22

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.43B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TXNM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $58.38 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $6.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #52 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?

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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.25B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, POR leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while POR leads on capital efficiency (6.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?

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Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.22 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 22.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TXNM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TXNM SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22.9% FCF Margin ($488.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.8) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$58.57-0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$58.49+0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$58.60-0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$58.38-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TXNM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TXNM currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($58.32) and Max Pain ($61.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $67.34.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TXNM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TXNM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±1.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TXNM)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TXNM.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TXNM)

✓Walkthrough of TXNM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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TXNM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.37%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $58.65H $58.65L $58.38C $58.38VOL 967.8K

RES: $58.99SUP: $58.33SMA50: $58.32SMA200: $58.39

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TXNM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TXNM Butterfly Map → + Track TXNM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

29.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TXNM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TXNM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TXNM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TXNM)

Utilities Rank #52 of 117 ⚔️ BKH vs TXNM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (TXNM vs. BKH, ENIC, ORA, POR)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) ranks #52 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #50 by equity capitalization ($6.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, POR leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while POR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TXNM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TXNM ACTIVE TXNM Energy Inc.	D+	53/100	38.0x	—	4.1%	-0.46%	$6.43B	Benchmark Subject
BKH Black Hills Corporation	D+	53/100	21.3x	—	5.1%	+0.68%	$6.25B	/bkh-vs-txnm →
ENIC Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )	D	45/100	—	—	—	-2.36%	$5.71B	/enic-vs-txnm →
ORA Ormat Technologies Inc.	E	31/100	44.7x	27.6%	3.4%	-2.74%	$5.52B	/ora-vs-txnm →
POR Portland General Electric Co	D-	41/100	12.0x	—	6.1%	+0.52%	$5.29B	/por-vs-txnm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001108426

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) reported GAAP revenue of $2.14B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.96B , and +11.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $169.8M, operating cash flow of $584.5M, and free cash flow of $488.3M (+16.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TXNM closed FY2025 with $12.06B in total assets against $5.12B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.80, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.14B	$169.8M	$584.5M	$488.3M	$12.06B	$5.12B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.96B	$258.7M	$508.2M	$420.0M	$11.21B	$4.31B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.91B	$106.9M	$551.2M	$465.0M	$3.55B	$831.3M

3. TXNM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?

Where is TXNM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TXNM last traded at $58.38 (-0.46% on volume of 967,807 shares), positioning the stock +0.10% above its 50-day simple moving average ($58.32) and -0.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($58.39). Across its 52-week range of $55.64 to $59.53, TXNM sits at the 70.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($57.33 to $59.43).

TXNM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TXNM's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TXNM.

Direct Sub-Reports: TXNM RQD Cockpit TXNM 12M Forecast TXNM Earnings & Move TXNM Dividends & DRIP TXNM Insiders & 13F TXNM Whale Options TXNM Profit Sankey TXNM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TXNM — TXNM Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TXNM scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20 (ROIC 4.1%; FCF yield 7.56%); Whale 13F Flow 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 14/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 11/20 (Beta 0.49; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 10/20 (Altman Z 0.8; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.5). Investor implications: the strongest pillar is insider conviction, which signals some insider-side confidence, while the weakest pillars are the cash engine and balance sheet. The 4.1% ROIC and Altman Z of 0.8 point to thin returns on capital and elevated financial stress, which is the main valuation tradeoff: the 7.56% FCF yield and 2.53% dividend yield are offset by a trailing P/E of 38 and EV/EBITDA of 22.1. Upside drivers in the data are the insider and institutional flow signals and the low beta of 0.49; downside risks are the balance-sheet metrics and premium valuation. This is an analytical framing, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
58.65	$6.46B	38	35.3	22.1	1.54	2.53%	0.49	$55.64 - $59.53	4.1%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$2136.9M	$441.2M	$169.8M	N/A	$488.3M	$18.3M	$5116.0M
FY 2024	$1959.6M	$453.5M	$258.7M	N/A	$420.0M	$4.5M	$4311.8M
FY 2023	$1914.9M	$231.3M	$106.9M	N/A	$465.0M	N/A	$831.3M

Per the market data, operating margin is 20.6%, net margin 7.9%, gross margin 0%, and ROIC 4.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.8 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 1.5. Reported debt rose from $831.3M (FY 2023) to $5116.0M (FY 2025), while cash remained small at $18.3M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Earnings: Investing.com reports TXNM beat earnings by $0.08 with revenue topping estimates (GREEN catalyst flag).
Merger review: Albuquerque Journal reports PRC examiners let the TXNM-Blackstone merger move forward.
Lock-up: marketscreener.com reports certain common stock is subject to a lock-up agreement ending 31-OCT-2026 (a risk watch item).
Price action: Yahoo Finance reports the stock trades at a premium after a 48% run.
Quarterly results: TradingView reports TXNM Energy results for Third Quarter 2026.
Proprietary signals: None in the Butterfly graph.

Open Questions

What is the company's actual product mix, customer base, and revenue model (the Business section is unresolved in the source)?
What are the terms and financial implications of the Blackstone merger, and how does the 31-OCT-2026 lock-up interact with it?
Why did debt rise from $831.3M to $5116.0M over FY 2023–FY 2025, and what drove the increase?
What explains the gap between a 38 trailing P/E and a 1.54 EPS-derived earnings base, and how do EPS figures for FY 2023–FY 2025 compare (currently N/A)?
What are the sector-level correlations and supply-chain dependencies, given the Butterfly graph returned none?

TXNM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TXNM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 18h ago

TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance UK report covering TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

TXNM Energy (TXNM) Stock Trades At A Premium After Its 48% Run

Yahoo Finance report covering TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Albuquerque Journal • 1d ago

PRC examiners let TXNM-Blackstone merger move forward

Albuquerque Journal report covering TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

TXNM Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results

TradingView report covering TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Certain Common Stock of TXNM Energy, Inc. are subject to a Lock-Up Agreement Ending on 31-OCT-2026.

marketscreener.com report covering TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

TXNM Energy earnings beat by $0.08, revenue topped estimates

Investing.com report covering TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

What Is Drawing Fresh Attention To TXNM Energy (TXNM)?

Simply Wall St report covering TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TXNM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $58.38?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TXNM 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $63.34 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TXNM (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $58.65?

Welcome to the TXNM (TXNM Energy Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Electric Utilities: Central. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (38.0x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $48.09 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $58.65

Pump the brakes on TXNM — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TXNM, but look at what you are paying: 38.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless TXNM Energy Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $70.97 (+21.0%)

Spot @ $58.65

TXNM cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TXNM, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electric Utilities: Central and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $58.65 (52-wk range $55.64 - $59.53), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.