Wayfair Inc. (W) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$115.91 -3.50% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $114.96

Wayfair Inc. (W) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $15.88B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is W stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $115.91 (-3.50% 1D, market cap $15.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, W ranks #318 in composite RQD confidence.

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πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does W compare to CDW and CPNG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), W carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.2%, and ROIC of 1.0%. By comparison, CDW (CDW Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $19.23B) and CPNG (Coupang Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 125.9x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $25.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VIPS leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while VIPS leads on capital efficiency (35.7% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for W?
β–Ό

Per W's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001616707), Wayfair Inc. generated $12.46B in revenue (+5.1% YoY), -$313.0M in net income, and $464.0M in free cash flow against $3.44B in total assets and $3.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $114.96 (-0.82%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 3.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.5% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ Β· Rk D
Cash (13)Whales (18)SEC (12)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$138 Bull$117 Base$91 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE W RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for W)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY W SCORES 60/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±9.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.7% FCF Margin ($464.0M FCF) & 30.2% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.6) create a -12 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$104.78+8.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$113.31+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$114.02+1.7% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$115.91+0.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (52) β†’ C- (60)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the W Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, W faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($105.70) or 200D SMA ($88.74) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($116.95) toward Bear Floor ($91.22).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $Wβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How W Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$464.0M (3.7% FCF Margin)
Revenue$12.46BGross Profit $3.77B (30.2%)Cost of Sales $8.69BOp Profit $17.0M (0.1%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $3.75BNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $17.0M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $12.00B
FY24
Rev $11.85B
FY25
Rev $12.46B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$12.46B30.2%0.1%-$313.0M$464.0M95%
FY 2024$11.85B30.2%-3.9%-$492.0M$244.0M-45%
FY 2023$12.00B30.2%-6.8%-$738.0M-$191.1M-7.4%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring W)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of W's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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W // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +78.74%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $120.1H $120.1L $115.9C $115.9VOL 2.20M
RES: $121.1SUP: $103.2SMA50: $105.7SMA200: $88.74
$125.5$106.5$87.60$68.66$49.72RES $121.1SUP $103.2$115.92026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

W Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
26.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on W today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for W. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for W today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (W)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #318 of 1011 βš”οΈ CDW vs W Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (W vs. CDW, CPNG, CHWY, VIPS)

Industry: Catalog/Specialty Distribution (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Wayfair Inc. (W) ranks #318 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #121 by equity capitalization ($15.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VIPS leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while VIPS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.7% ROIC and 23.1% gross margin. CDW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with W at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
W ACTIVE
Wayfair Inc.
C- 60/100 β€” 30.2% 1.0% -3.50% $15.88B Benchmark Subject
CDW
CDW Corporation
B 72/100 19.4x 21.7% 19.8% -6.91% $19.23B /cdw-vs-w β†’
CPNG
Coupang Inc.
D 47/100 125.9x 29.4% 9.7% -1.37% $25.83B /cpng-vs-w β†’
CHWY
Chewy Inc.
C 62/100 37.6x 29.8% 30.0% +2.21% $8.56B /chwy-vs-w β†’
VIPS
Vipshop Holdings Limited each representing two
C- 61/100 5.9x 23.1% 35.7% +1.10% $6.19B /vips-vs-w β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001616707

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Wayfair Inc. (W) reported GAAP revenue of $12.46B (+5.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.85B , and +3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$313.0M, operating cash flow of $534.0M, and free cash flow of $464.0M (+90.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, W closed FY2025 with $3.44B in total assets against $3.23B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.22, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $12.46B -$313.0M $534.0M $464.0M $3.44B $3.23B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $11.85B -$492.0M $317.0M $244.0M $3.46B $2.88B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $12.00B -$738.0M $349.0M -$191.1M $14.40B $3.37B

3. W Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is W stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $115.91 (-3.50% 1D, market cap $15.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, W ranks #318 in composite RQD confidence.

How does W compare to CDW and CPNG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), W carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.2%, and ROIC of 1.0%. By comparison, CDW (CDW Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $19.23B) and CPNG (Coupang Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 125.9x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $25.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VIPS leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while VIPS leads on capital efficiency (35.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for W?

Per W's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001616707), Wayfair Inc. generated $12.46B in revenue (+5.1% YoY), -$313.0M in net income, and $464.0M in free cash flow against $3.44B in total assets and $3.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is W trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

W last traded at $115.91 (-3.50% on volume of 2,196,832 shares), positioning the stock +9.66% above its 50-day simple moving average ($105.70) and +30.62% above its 200-day simple moving average ($88.74). Across its 52-week range of $55.60 to $120.90, W sits at the 92.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±9.5% ($104.90 to $126.92).

W Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

How profitable is Wayfair Inc. (W)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), W converted $12.5B of revenue into a 30.2% gross margin, 0.1% operating margin, and $464.0M in free cash flow (3.7% FCF margin).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 60/100 (C-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

W β€” Wayfair Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:20Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, Wayfair Inc. scores 61 out of 100, grade C-, verdict "Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 13 of 20 (ROIC 1%; FCF yield 2.82%), indicating thin returns on invested capital despite positive free cash flow. Whale 13F Flow scores 19 of 20, the strongest pillar, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 9 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 8 of 20 with a beta of 1.05 and noted sector sensitivity. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 12 of 20, citing Altman Z 3.22, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.85. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests mainly on institutional positioning and recovery in cash generation, while the valuation tradeoff is steep: forward P/E of 34 and EV/EBITDA of 95 leave little margin for execution slippage. Insider flow and macro sensitivity are weaker supports, so the rating's neutral label reflects a mix of strong positioning against stretched valuation and limited profitability.

Business

Wayfair Inc. is a NYSE-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Catalog/Specialty Distribution industry. Per the company profile, it is a publicly traded US issuer with a market capitalization of $16.5B. The source data does not describe its product categories, customer base, or revenue mechanics beyond sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$12457.0M$17.0M$-313.0MN/A$464.0M$1476.0M$3233.0M
FY 2024$11851.0M$-461.0M$-492.0MN/A$244.0M$1316.0M$2882.0M
FY 2023$12003.0M$-813.0M$-738.0MN/A$-191.1MN/A$3370.4M

Per the SEC financials, operating income moved from losses in FY 2023 and FY 2024 to a small positive $17.0M in FY 2025, while net income remained negative at $-313.0M. Market data reports a gross margin of 30.2%, operating margin of 0.1%, and net margin of -2.5%, with ROIC of 1%. The Altman Z-Score is 3.22 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, both per the Roarable RQD rating's forensic pillar. Debt/Equity is 0.85, and reported debt fell from $3370.4M in FY 2023 to $3233.0M in FY 2025 while FCF turned positive.

Open Questions

  • What is the reported EPS for FY 2025 and FY 2024, given that the financials list EPS as N/A while the market data lists EPS (TTM) at -2.29?
  • What is the trailing P/E, given that the source data does not supply it, and how should the forward P/E of 34 be reconciled with negative trailing earnings?
  • What drove the swing from FY 2024 operating loss of $-461.0M to FY 2025 operating income of $17.0M, and is that sustainable?
  • What is the FY 2023 cash balance, which is listed as N/A, and does the FCF yield of 2.82% reflect the same cash-generation basis as the reported FCF figures?
  • What specific institutional and options positioning sits behind the 19 of 20 whale-flow score, since no holder or 13F detail is provided?

W Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Wayfair Inc. (W) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to W Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

W Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $115.91?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON W 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on W:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $129.73 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is W (C- β€’ RQD 61/100) a Buy at $120.12?

Welcome to the W (Wayfair Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 61/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral) in Catalog/Specialty Distribution. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $96.10 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $120.12

Pump the brakes on W β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on W, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 30.2% gross margins. Unless Wayfair Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $141.74 (+18.0%)
Spot @ $120.12

W cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on W, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Catalog/Specialty Distribution and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $120.12 (52-wk range $55.60 - $120.90), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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