Stock Ratings / Industrials / ZTO / earnings

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (ZTO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±2.7% Move

$20.15 +1.36% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.16

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (ZTO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $15.31B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ZTO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ZTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (NYSE: ZTO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $20.15 (+1.36% 1D, market cap $15.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ZTO ranks #87 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ZTO compare to JBHT and KNX in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), ZTO carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of 25.0%, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 34.6x, ROIC 15.8%, cap $20.70B) and KNX (Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 150.9x, ROIC 1.9%, cap $9.95B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZTO leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while JBHT leads on capital efficiency (15.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ZTO?

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Per ZTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001677250), ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American generated $7.02B in revenue (+15.7% YoY), $1.30B in net income, and $965.8M in free cash flow against $13.02B in total assets and $1.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.16 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 13.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ZTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±2.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ZTO SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.8% FCF Margin ($965.8M FCF) & 25% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$20.67-2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$20.22-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$20.05+0.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$20.15+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ZTO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, ZTO faces multiple-compression risk if 11.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 22.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.26) or 200D SMA ($22.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.78) toward Bear Floor ($16.21).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ZTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ZTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±2.7% Swing Band

±$0.54 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ZTO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 65/100

Trailing EPS: $1.69 • YoY Revenue Growth: 6.6%

Model Bullish Setup (65/100)Model Risk Weight (35/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$7.02B	$1.30B	$965.8M	25%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$6.07B	$1.21B	$852.3M	31%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$1.23B	$1.88B	25%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ZTO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ZTO
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ZTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.34%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $19.75H $20.15L $19.75C $20.15VOL 1.96M

RES: $23.54SUP: $17.73SMA50: $20.26SMA200: $22.84

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ZTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ZTO Butterfly Map → + Track ZTO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ZTO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ZTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ZTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ZTO)

Industrials Rank #87 of 485 ⚔️ JBHT vs ZTO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ZTO vs. JBHT, KNX, TFII, SAIA)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (ZTO) ranks #87 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #76 by equity capitalization ($15.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZTO leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while JBHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.8% ROIC and — gross margin. JBHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with ZTO at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ZTO ACTIVE ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American	C	65/100	11.8x	25.0%	12.5%	+1.36%	$15.31B	Benchmark Subject
JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.	C+	66/100	34.6x	—	15.8%	-0.44%	$20.70B	/jbht-vs-zto →
KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	150.9x	—	1.9%	-0.62%	$9.95B	/knx-vs-zto →
TFII TFI International Inc.	D+	55/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-17.08%	$9.25B	/tfii-vs-zto →
SAIA Saia Inc.	C-	59/100	35.9x	—	8.5%	+0.45%	$9.15B	/saia-vs-zto →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001677250

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (ZTO) reported GAAP revenue of $7.02B (+15.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.07B ) , GAAP net income of $1.30B, operating cash flow of $1.71B, and free cash flow of $965.8M (+13.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ZTO closed FY2025 with $13.02B in total assets against $1.54B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.41, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$7.02B	$1.30B	$1.71B	$965.8M	$13.02B	$1.54B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$6.07B	$1.21B	$1.57B	$852.3M	$12.65B	$1.83B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$1.23B	$1.88B	$1.88B	$8.42B	$1.97B

3. ZTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ZTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ZTO compare to JBHT and KNX in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ZTO?

Where is ZTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ZTO last traded at $20.15 (+1.36% on volume of 1,460,267 shares), positioning the stock -0.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.26) and -11.78% below its 200-day simple moving average ($22.84). Across its 52-week range of $18.31 to $26.20, ZTO sits at the 23.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±2.7% ($19.61 to $20.69).

ZTO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ZTO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (ZTO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ZTO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±2.7% event move for ZTO, spanning a range between $19.61 and $20.69.

Direct Sub-Reports: ZTO RQD Cockpit ZTO 12M Forecast ZTO Earnings & Move ZTO Dividends & DRIP ZTO Insiders & 13F ZTO Whale Options ZTO Profit Sankey ZTO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ZTO — ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:37Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ZTO carries an RQD Score of 65 and a letter grade of C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 12.5% and an FCF yield of 6.31%. These are solid cash-generation signals, but the score is not top-tier, implying the business earns reasonable returns without standing out sharply on cash productivity.
Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20. Per the RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score low. For a prospective investor, this suggests limited evidence of large institutional conviction building in the stock, which removes one potential source of upside momentum.
Insider Conviction: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow score strongly. This is the highest-scoring pillar and is the main positive signal in the rating, indicating insiders and related filers show notable buying or activity clustering.
Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta of 1.11 and sector sensitivity place ZTO moderately exposed to market swings. An investor should expect amplified moves relative to the broader market in risk-off regimes.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z of 4.41, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15 point to a financially sound balance sheet with low leverage and strong internal health indicators.

Taken together, the rating reflects a company with a healthy balance sheet and credible cash returns, offset by weak institutional flow and moderate market sensitivity. A prospective investor should weigh the strong insider signal and forensic strength against the lack of institutional momentum and the valuation the market currently assigns, with the "Hold" verdict indicating a balanced rather than compelling risk-reward profile at this point.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
19.88	$15.31B	11.8	11	7.2	1.69	3.51%	1.11	$18.31 - $26.2	12.5%

Business

Per the profile, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Trucking Freight/Courier Services industry. Its market capitalization is $15.3B. Customer segments, service specifics, and detailed revenue mechanics are not available in source data beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$7021.0M	$1497.9M	$1298.5M	N/A	$965.8M	$1431.6M	$1537.1M
FY 2024	$6066.4M	$1613.4M	$1207.9M	N/A	$852.3M	$1844.8M	$1828.9M
FY 2023	$0.0M	$1409.6M	$1232.3M	N/A	$1881.9M	N/A	$1969.8M

Per the market data, gross margin is 25%, operating margin 21.3%, and net margin 18.5%, with ROIC of 12.5%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.41 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, both indicating strong financial health. Debt/Equity is 0.15 per the RQD rating. Net income rose from $1207.9M in FY 2024 to $1298.5M in FY 2025, while debt declined from $1828.9M to $1537.1M over the same period, and cash fell from $1844.8M to $1431.6M. FY 2023 revenue is reported as $0.0M, which is not interpretable without further context.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data.

Open Questions

What drove the revenue reported at $0.0M for FY 2023, and is it a data gap or a reporting change?
Why are EPS values listed as N/A across all periods, and what is the per-share earnings trend?
What explains the decline in cash from $1844.8M to $1431.6M between FY 2024 and FY 2025 despite rising net income?
What specific insider and Congressional transactions make up the cluster flow behind the 18/20 insider score?
What is the company's revenue and customer mix, and what catalysts are expected in coming periods?

ZTO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American (ZTO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ZTO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Fintel • 7d ago

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Repurchases Class A Ordinary Shares on New York Stock Exchange

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 17d ago

ZTO to Announce Third Quarter Financial Results of 2026 on November 17, 2026 U.S. Eastern Time

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO and SEHK: 2057) ("ZTO" or the "Company"), a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China, today announced that it will release its unaudited financial results for the th

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Benzinga • 18d ago

This Align Technology Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Thursday

Analysts downgraded Envista, Cirrus Logic, ZTO Express, Align Technology and Par Pacific, with mixed price-target changes.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Benzinga • 18d ago

Goldman Sachs Downgrades ZTO Express (Cayman) to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $22

Goldman Sachs analyst Ronald Keung downgrades ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) from Buy to Neutral and lowers the price target from $25 to $22.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 19d ago

13 Graham Value Dividend All-Stars (GVAS) Shine In October

Read here for a detailed analysis of Octoberâs top GVAS dividend stocks with projected 27%â68% gains by 2027.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ChartMill • 20d ago

ZTO Express (NYSE:ZTO): A Growth-at-a-Reasonable-Price Candidate

ZTO Express fits a Peter Lynch GARP screen with 15.35% EPS growth, 0.63 PEG, low debt, and a value tilt.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ZTO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.15?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ZTO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $21.47 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ZTO (C • RQD 65/100) a Buy at $19.88?

Welcome to the ZTO (ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 65/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Trucking Freight/Courier Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.50 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $19.88

Pump the brakes on ZTO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ZTO, but look at what you are paying: 11.8x trailing P/E with 25.0% gross margins. Unless ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.85 (+25.0%)

Spot @ $19.88

ZTO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ZTO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Trucking Freight/Courier Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $19.88 (52-wk range $18.31 - $26.20), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.