Should I buy, hold, or sell MRCY stock right now?

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 56/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 22x P/E (15% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MRCY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MRCY's 12-month base price target is $76.84 (range $59.94 to $134.87), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Technology / MRCY

VSH (40) PLXS (54) OLED (62) TTMI (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$77.54 -5.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.67

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.72B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Mercury Systems Inc (NASDAQ: MRCY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $77.54 (-5.21% 1D, market cap $4.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, MRCY ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRCY compare to VSH and PLXS in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Electrical Products), MRCY carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, VSH (Vishay Intertechnology Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $4.10B) and PLXS (Plexus Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 33.3x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $5.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OLED leads on earnings multiple (15.8x) while MRCY leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRCY?

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Per MRCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26, CIK 0001049521), Mercury Systems Inc generated $1.05B in revenue (+15.2% YoY), $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.50B in total assets and $469.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.66 (-1.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRCY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MRCY SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.26 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$75.69-0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$75.49+4.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$78.58-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$77.54-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRCY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MRCY faces multiple-compression risk if 21.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.42) or 200D SMA ($91.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($76.84) toward Bear Floor ($59.94).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRCY• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MRCY Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

45.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.26>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

9 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE20% OF RANGE

L: $65$77.54H: $128

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MRCY

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

14.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 3.99% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.26 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MRCY

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MRCY)

✓Walkthrough of MRCY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MRCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $81.80H $81.80L $77.54C $77.54VOL 543.7K

RES: $90.98SUP: $65.64SMA50: $81.42SMA200: $91.32

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRCY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MRCY Butterfly Map → + Track MRCY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

15.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRCY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRCY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRCY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRCY)

Technology Rank #268 of 715 ⚔️ VSH vs MRCY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (MRCY vs. VSH, PLXS, OLED, TTMI)

Industry: Electrical Products (34 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) ranks #268 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #216 by equity capitalization ($4.72B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OLED leads on earnings valuation at 15.8x trailing P/E, while MRCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. OLED currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with MRCY at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MRCY ACTIVE Mercury Systems Inc	D+	56/100	21.7x	—	14.9%	-5.21%	$4.72B	Benchmark Subject
VSH Vishay Intertechnology Inc.	D-	40/100	—	19.4%	1.8%	-9.14%	$4.10B	/vsh-vs-mrcy →
PLXS Plexus Corp.	D+	54/100	33.3x	10.1%	8.2%	-3.86%	$5.54B	/plxs-vs-mrcy →
OLED Universal Display Corporation	C	62/100	15.8x	76.3%	11.5%	-1.15%	$3.78B	/oled-vs-mrcy →
TTMI TTM Technologies Inc.	D	44/100	52.0x	20.7%	9.6%	-5.35%	$8.74B	/ttmi-vs-mrcy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-26 • CIK 0001049521 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26), Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) reported GAAP revenue of $1.05B (+15.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $912.0M , and +25.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 (-100.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRCY closed FY2025 with $2.50B in total assets against $469.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.26, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-26	$1.05B	$0	$0	$0	$2.50B	$469.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-27	$912.0M	-$37.9M	$138.9M	$119.0M	$2.40B	$423.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-28	$835.3M	-$137.6M	$60.4M	$22.8M	$2.74B	$640.8M

3. MRCY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MRCY compare to VSH and PLXS in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRCY?

Where is MRCY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRCY last traded at $77.54 (-5.21% on volume of 543,700 shares), positioning the stock -4.77% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.42) and -15.09% below its 200-day simple moving average ($91.32). Across its 52-week range of $65.04 to $128.45, MRCY sits at the 19.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($70.56 to $84.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: MRCY RQD Cockpit MRCY 12M Forecast MRCY Earnings & Move MRCY Dividends & DRIP MRCY Insiders & 13F MRCY Whale Options MRCY Profit Sankey MRCY News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-26

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $77.54 (-5.21% 1D, market capitalization $4.72B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 21.1%, and free cash flow yield of 3.99%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.33x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.26, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.30x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Electrical Products industry (Technology sector) with an equity market capitalization of $4.72B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 21.1%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.9% (free cash flow yield of 3.99%). Within the Electrical Products peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-26), Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) reported $1.05B in annual revenue (up from $912.0M in FY2024, +15.2% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($835.3M revenue, -$137.6M net income) through FY2025, MRCY scaled operating cash flow to $0 and free cash flow to $0, backed by $2.50B in total assets against $469.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $65.04 – $128.45 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 21.7x trailing P/E and 14.6x EV/EBITDA against 21.1% operating margins and a 1.33x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Electrical Products (Technology), MRCY carries a macro regime beta of 1.33 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can MRCY sustain or expand its 21.1% operating margin and 14.9% ROIC against Electrical Products peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.05B and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $469.0M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MRCY's 18.2x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.33x)?

MRCY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MRCY Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

How Mercury’s New RES One Edge Platform At Mercury Systems (MRCY) Has Changed Its Investment Story

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Mercury Systems Inc Estimates – NASDAQ:MRCY

TradingView report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Budget Uncertainty Weighed on Mercury Systems (MRCY) in Q3

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Mercury Systems Inc (NASDAQ:MRCY) Stock Now Rated "Moderate Buy" by Wall Street Analysts

MarketBeat report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Director gets 2,348 stock units at Mercury Systems (MRCY), reports holdings of 29,620 shares.

Stock Titan report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Is Mercury Systems (MRCY) Overvalued Based On Its Sales?

Simply Wall St report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Allient, Bel Fuse, Ducommun, Mercury Systems, and FuelCell Energy shares skyrocket, what you need to know

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Rugged server delivery typically takes 6-12 months. Mercury's RES One targets shorter delivery times.

Stock Titan report covering Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MRCY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $77.54?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MRCY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $101.58 (+31.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 4.26, Piotroski F 9/9, Debt/Equity 0.3) and insider cluster flow support the RQD score despite a thin

Don't sleep on MRCY's setup in Technology. Forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 4.26, Piotroski F 9/9, Debt/Equity 0.3) and insider cluster flow support the RQD score despite a thin 3.99% FCF yield.. Beta of 1.33 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (56/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MRCY's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $65.91 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $77.54

A 1.33 beta, 3.99% FCF yield, and negative reported FY 2023 and FY 2024 net income leave the 21.7 trailing P/E thinly supported by cash

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MRCY: A 1.33 beta, 3.99% FCF yield, and negative reported FY 2023 and FY 2024 net income leave the 21.7 trailing P/E thinly supported by cash generation.. At 21.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Electrical Products triggers a 12-15% air pocket.