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Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$77.37 -0.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $77.19

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.72B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MRCY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Mercury Systems Inc (NASDAQ: MRCY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $77.37 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $4.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, MRCY ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRCY compare to VSH and PLXS in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Electrical Products), MRCY carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, VSH (Vishay Intertechnology Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $4.10B) and PLXS (Plexus Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 33.3x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $5.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OLED leads on earnings multiple (15.8x) while MRCY leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRCY?
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Per MRCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26, CIK 0001049521), Mercury Systems Inc generated $1.05B in revenue (+15.2% YoY), $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.50B in total assets and $469.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $77.19 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (9)Whales (6)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$135 Bull$77 Base$60 Bear
📬 FREE MRCY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRCY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MRCY SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.26 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$75.69-0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$75.49+4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$78.58-1.5% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$77.37-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRCY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MRCY faces multiple-compression risk if 21.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.42) or 200D SMA ($91.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($76.67) toward Bear Floor ($59.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRCY• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MRCY Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MRCY Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $77.37: 129.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $59.80
$7,729
$-2,271 (-22.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $76.67
$9,910
$-90 (-0.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $134.87
$17,432
+$7,432 (+74.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$8074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$12769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$6858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MRCY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MRCY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MRCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.48%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $81.80H $81.80L $77.37C $77.37VOL 543.7K
RES: $90.98SUP: $65.64SMA50: $81.42SMA200: $91.32
$132.4$115.9$99.46$82.98$66.49RES $90.98SUP $65.64$77.372026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRCY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MRCY Butterfly Map → + Track MRCY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRCY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRCY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRCY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRCY)

Technology Rank #268 of 715 ⚔️ VSH vs MRCY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (MRCY vs. VSH, PLXS, OLED, TTMI)

Industry: Electrical Products (34 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) ranks #268 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #216 by equity capitalization ($4.72B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OLED leads on earnings valuation at 15.8x trailing P/E, while MRCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. OLED currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with MRCY at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MRCY ACTIVE
Mercury Systems Inc
D+ 56/100 21.7x — 14.9% -0.22% $4.72B Benchmark Subject
VSH
Vishay Intertechnology Inc.
D- 40/100 — 19.4% 1.8% -4.56% $4.10B /vsh-vs-mrcy →
PLXS
Plexus Corp.
D+ 54/100 33.3x 10.1% 8.2% +0.70% $5.54B /plxs-vs-mrcy →
OLED
Universal Display Corporation
C 62/100 15.8x 76.3% 11.5% +7.05% $3.78B /oled-vs-mrcy →
TTMI
TTM Technologies Inc.
D 44/100 52.0x 20.7% 9.6% -7.67% $8.74B /ttmi-vs-mrcy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-26 • CIK 0001049521 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26), Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) reported GAAP revenue of $1.05B (+15.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $912.0M , and +25.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 (-100.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRCY closed FY2025 with $2.50B in total assets against $469.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.26, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-26 $1.05B $0 $0 $0 $2.50B $469.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-27 $912.0M -$37.9M $138.9M $119.0M $2.40B $423.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-28 $835.3M -$137.6M $60.4M $22.8M $2.74B $640.8M

3. MRCY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Mercury Systems Inc (NASDAQ: MRCY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $77.37 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $4.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, MRCY ranks #268 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MRCY compare to VSH and PLXS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Electrical Products), MRCY carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.9%. By comparison, VSH (Vishay Intertechnology Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $4.10B) and PLXS (Plexus Corp.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 33.3x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $5.54B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OLED leads on earnings multiple (15.8x) while MRCY leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRCY?

Per MRCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-26, CIK 0001049521), Mercury Systems Inc generated $1.05B in revenue (+15.2% YoY), $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.50B in total assets and $469.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MRCY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRCY last traded at $77.37 (-0.22% on volume of 438,253 shares), positioning the stock -4.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.42) and -15.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($91.32). Across its 52-week range of $65.04 to $128.45, MRCY sits at the 19.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($70.41 to $84.33).

Direct Sub-Reports: MRCY RQD Cockpit MRCY 12M Forecast MRCY Earnings & Move MRCY Dividends & DRIP MRCY Insiders & 13F MRCY Whale Options MRCY Profit Sankey MRCY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MRCY — Mercury Systems Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-26

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $77.37 (-0.22% 1D, market capitalization $4.72B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 21.1%, and free cash flow yield of 3.99%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.33x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.26, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.30x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Electrical Products industry (Technology sector) with an equity market capitalization of $4.72B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 21.1%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.9% (free cash flow yield of 3.99%). Within the Electrical Products peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-26), Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) reported $1.05B in annual revenue (up from $912.0M in FY2024, +15.2% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($835.3M revenue, -$137.6M net income) through FY2025, MRCY scaled operating cash flow to $0 and free cash flow to $0, backed by $2.50B in total assets against $469.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $65.04 – $128.45 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 21.7x trailing P/E and 14.6x EV/EBITDA against 21.1% operating margins and a 1.33x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Electrical Products (Technology), MRCY carries a macro regime beta of 1.33 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can MRCY sustain or expand its 21.1% operating margin and 14.9% ROIC against Electrical Products peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.05B and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $469.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MRCY's 18.2x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.33x)?

MRCY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MRCY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MRCY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $77.37?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MRCY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MRCY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $101.58 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 4.26, Piotroski F 9/9, Debt/Equity 0.3) and insider cluster flow support the RQD score despite a thin

Don't sleep on MRCY's setup in Technology. Forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 4.26, Piotroski F 9/9, Debt/Equity 0.3) and insider cluster flow support the RQD score despite a thin 3.99% FCF yield.. Beta of 1.33 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (56/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MRCY's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $65.91 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $77.54

A 1.33 beta, 3.99% FCF yield, and negative reported FY 2023 and FY 2024 net income leave the 21.7 trailing P/E thinly supported by cash

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MRCY: A 1.33 beta, 3.99% FCF yield, and negative reported FY 2023 and FY 2024 net income leave the 21.7 trailing P/E thinly supported by cash generation.. At 21.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Electrical Products triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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