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Stock Ratings / Real Estate / TAL
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TAL Education Group (TAL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.10 +2.33% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.12

TAL Education Group (TAL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.47B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TAL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $10.10 (+2.33% 1D, market cap $5.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, TAL ranks #12 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TAL compare to GHC and LAUR in the Real Estate sector?
▼

Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), TAL carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of 55.4%, and ROIC of 12.4%. By comparison, GHC (Graham Holdings Company) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $4.87B) and LAUR (Laureate Education Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 30.6%, cap $4.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TAL leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while LAUR leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TAL?
▼

Per TAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28, CIK 0001499620), TAL Education Group generated $3.01B in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $530.8M in net income, and $508.3M in free cash flow against $3.61B in total assets and $844.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.12 (+0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 16.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C- · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (5)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$14 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE TAL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TAL SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.29 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$12.51-15.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$10.55-4.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$10.06+0.4% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$10.10+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TAL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, TAL faces multiple-compression risk if 10.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 52.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.64) or 200D SMA ($11.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.33) toward Bear Floor ($8.06).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TAL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)
28.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
4.29>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
9 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE28% OF RANGE
L: $9$10.10H: $13
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (55.4% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on TAL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

12.4% ROIC with 55.4% gross margin and 9.04% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.29 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (57)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TAL
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TAL Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.25%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $10.14H $10.14L $9.87C $10.10VOL 7.42M
RES: $13.29SUP: $9.61SMA50: $11.64SMA200: $11.08
$13.40$12.17$10.95$9.72$8.50RES $13.29SUP $9.61$10.102026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TAL Butterfly Map → + Track TAL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TAL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TAL)

Real Estate Rank #12 of 51 ⚔️ GHC vs TAL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (TAL vs. GHC, LAUR, CVSA, EDU)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TAL Education Group (TAL) ranks #12 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #4 by equity capitalization ($5.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while LAUR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.6% ROIC and 28.3% gross margin. CVSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with TAL at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TAL ACTIVE
TAL Education Group
C 63/100 10.6x 55.4% 12.4% +2.33% $5.47B Benchmark Subject
GHC
Graham Holdings Company
C 63/100 16.8x — 3.5% +2.94% $4.87B /ghc-vs-tal →
LAUR
Laureate Education Inc.
B- 70/100 17.6x 28.3% 30.6% +4.79% $4.51B /laur-vs-tal →
CVSA
Covista Inc.
B 74/100 18.4x 56.9% 14.8% -0.24% $4.13B /cvsa-vs-tal →
EDU
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. Sponsored ADR representing 10 Ordinary Share (Cayman Islands)
C+ 69/100 16.0x 54.6% 21.3% +1.44% $7.55B /edu-vs-tal →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-02-28 • CIK 0001499620 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28), TAL Education Group (TAL) reported GAAP revenue of $3.01B (+33.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.25B , and +101.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $530.8M, operating cash flow of $601.5M, and free cash flow of $508.3M (+77.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TAL closed FY2025 with $3.61B in total assets against $844.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.29, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-02-28 $3.01B $530.8M $601.5M $508.3M $3.61B $844.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-28 $2.25B $84.6M $397.9M $286.2M $3.09B $723.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-29 $1.49B -$3.6M $306.2M $239.1M $3.09B $723.9M

3. TAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TAL Education Group (NYSE: TAL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $10.10 (+2.33% 1D, market cap $5.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, TAL ranks #12 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TAL compare to GHC and LAUR in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), TAL carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of 55.4%, and ROIC of 12.4%. By comparison, GHC (Graham Holdings Company) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $4.87B) and LAUR (Laureate Education Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 30.6%, cap $4.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TAL leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while LAUR leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TAL?

Per TAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-02-28, CIK 0001499620), TAL Education Group generated $3.01B in revenue (+33.7% YoY), $530.8M in net income, and $508.3M in free cash flow against $3.61B in total assets and $844.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TAL last traded at $10.10 (+2.33% on volume of 7,429,235 shares), positioning the stock -13.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.64) and -8.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.08). Across its 52-week range of $8.88 to $13.23, TAL sits at the 28.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($9.34 to $10.86).

Direct Sub-Reports: TAL RQD Cockpit TAL 12M Forecast TAL Earnings & Move TAL Dividends & DRIP TAL Insiders & 13F TAL Whale Options TAL Profit Sankey TAL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TAL — TAL Education Group: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-02-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TAL Education Group (TAL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $10.10 (+2.33% 1D, market capitalization $5.47B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.4%, gross margin of 55.4%, operating margin of 9.2%, and free cash flow yield of 9.04%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.09x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.29, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

TAL Education Group is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Real Estate sector and the Other Consumer Services industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-02-28), TAL Education Group (TAL) reported $3.01B in annual revenue (up from $2.25B in FY2024, +33.7% YoY) and $530.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.49B revenue, -$3.6M net income) through FY2025, TAL scaled operating cash flow to $601.5M and free cash flow to $508.3M, backed by $3.61B in total assets against $844.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.88 – $13.23 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 10.6x trailing P/E and 16.5x EV/EBITDA against 9.2% operating margins and a 1.09x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector correlations beyond the Real Estate / Other Consumer Services classification are — A prospective investor should watch the reported profit-surge theme and the price-target cut as the only identifiable second-order reference points, but no supply-chain bottleneck can be mapped from the provided data.

  • Key Question #1: Can TAL sustain or expand its 9.2% operating margin and 12.4% ROIC against Other Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.01B and free cash flow of $508.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $844.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TAL's 8.9x forward P/E multiple to Real Estate capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.09x)?

TAL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TAL Education Group (TAL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TAL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TAL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.10?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TAL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TAL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.44 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $1.49B in FY 2023 to $3.01B in FY 2025 while the RQD insider pillar scored 18/20 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9

Long TAL at $9.87 targeting $12.44. Revenue grew from $1.49B in FY 2023 to $3.01B in FY 2025 while the RQD insider pillar scored 18/20 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $8.88 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 63/100 quality, though with 1.09 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $9.87 and keeping dry powder in case we test $9.18.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.19 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $9.87

Valuation & margin reality check on TAL at $9.87 before chasing here

I respect the product at TAL Education Group, but the stock at $9.87 is a different story. Valuation & margin reality check on TAL at $9.87 before chasing here. FCF yield is 9.04% and RQD sits at 63/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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