AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$5.16 -5.15% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.10

AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 22/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $171.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AIRO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AIRO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $5.16 (-5.15% 1D, market cap $171.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AIRO ranks #466 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AIRO compare to DPRO and SIF in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AIRO carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of -3.1%. By comparison, DPRO (Draganfly Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $143.4M) and SIF (SIFCO Industries Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.4%, cap $132.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HOVR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while SIF leads on capital efficiency (0.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIRO?
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Per AIRO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001927958), AIRO Group Holdings Inc. generated $90.9M in revenue (+4.6% YoY), -$4.1M in net income, and -$35.5M in free cash flow against $774.1M in total assets and $500.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.10 (-1.12%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (22/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510022
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (3)SEC (7)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.3% Base Target
$17 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE AIRO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AIRO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (22/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AIRO SCORES 22/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.68 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$5.99-11.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
27
Grade E$5.29-7.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
25
Grade E$4.90+5.3% Next Q
Current
22
Grade E$5.16-11.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (30) → E (22)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AIRO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AIRO currently carries a cautious 22/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.52) and Max Pain ($5.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.44.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AIRO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AIRO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.65 Expected Swing
$4.51 (-12.5%)Spot $5.16$5.81 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AIRO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 22/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 4.6%

Model Bullish Setup (22/100)Model Risk Weight (78/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$90.9M-$4.1M-$35.5M59.9%
FY 20242024-12-31$86.9M-$38.7M$20.7M67.1%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AIRO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AIRO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AIRO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.73%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $5.10H $5.44L $5.10C $5.16VOL 315.6K
RES: $13.91SUP: $4.40SMA50: $6.52SMA200: $8.03
$14.46$11.77$9.08$6.39$3.69RES $13.91SUP $4.40$5.162026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AIRO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AIRO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AIRO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AIRO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AIRO)

Industrials Rank #466 of 485 ⚔️ DPRO vs AIRO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AIRO vs. DPRO, SIF, EH, HOVR)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) ranks #466 by composite RQD confidence (22/100, grade E) and #357 by equity capitalization ($171.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HOVR leads on earnings valuation at 9.9x trailing P/E, while SIF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 0.4% ROIC and 12.5% gross margin. DPRO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with AIRO at 22/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AIRO ACTIVE
AIRO Group Holdings Inc.
E 22/100 — 59.9% -3.1% -5.15% $171.7M Benchmark Subject
DPRO
Draganfly Inc.
D 45/100 — — — -4.88% $143.4M /dpro-vs-airo →
SIF
SIFCO Industries Inc.
D- 40/100 — 12.5% 0.4% -5.14% $132.5M /sif-vs-airo →
EH
EHang Holdings Limited ADS
E 18/100 — 61.5% -27.9% -2.18% $278.4M /eh-vs-airo →
HOVR
New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. Class A Ordinary Share
E 34/100 9.9x — — -5.91% $85.2M /hovr-vs-airo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001927958

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) reported GAAP revenue of $90.9M (+4.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $86.9M ) , GAAP net income of -$4.1M, operating cash flow of -$32.4M, and free cash flow of -$35.5M (-271.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AIRO closed FY2025 with $774.1M in total assets against $500.0K in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.68, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $90.9M -$4.1M -$32.4M -$35.5M $774.1M $500.0K
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $86.9M -$38.7M $21.5M $20.7M $701.0M $688.0K

3. AIRO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AIRO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AIRO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $5.16 (-5.15% 1D, market cap $171.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AIRO ranks #466 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AIRO compare to DPRO and SIF in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AIRO carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of -3.1%. By comparison, DPRO (Draganfly Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $143.4M) and SIF (SIFCO Industries Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.4%, cap $132.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HOVR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while SIF leads on capital efficiency (0.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIRO?

Per AIRO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001927958), AIRO Group Holdings Inc. generated $90.9M in revenue (+4.6% YoY), -$4.1M in net income, and -$35.5M in free cash flow against $774.1M in total assets and $500.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AIRO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AIRO last traded at $5.16 (-5.15% on volume of 373,756 shares), positioning the stock -20.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.52) and -35.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.03). Across its 52-week range of $4.53 to $16.61, AIRO sits at the 5.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($4.51 to $5.81).

AIRO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AIRO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AIRO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for AIRO, spanning a range between $4.51 and $5.81.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 22/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AIRO — AIRO Group Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:42:06Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AIRO scores 22 out of 100 and receives a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Each of the five pillars is scored out of 20. The Fundamental Cash Engine scores 3/20, with ROIC at -3.1% and FCF yield at -20.68%, indicating that the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow relative to its market value. Whale/13F Flow scores 3/20, reflecting weak institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 3/20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 6/20 with a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 7/20, with an Altman Z-Score of 2.68, a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the pillar profile means the rating's negative signal comes primarily from cash generation and ownership flow rather than from balance-sheet leverage, which is comparatively modest. An upside case would need to rest on a turnaround in operating cash generation, since the current FCF yield is deeply negative. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because forward P/E and EV/EBITDA are not available in source data, and earnings-based multiples are also unavailable. The stock's 52-week range of $4.53 - $16.61 against a current price of $5.44 shows substantial drawdown, but the source data does not establish whether that reflects a re-rating of fundamentals or a shift in sentiment. The evidence supports caution and further diligence rather than a constructive stance.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the most prominent item is a Yahoo Finance report, flagged RED / RISK WATCH, describing a reset in analyst earnings expectations and a decline in fair value. Several other items are flagged YELLOW / MARKET WIRE, including a Moomoo options-chain report, a Simply Wall St forecast and analyst predictions piece, a Stock Titan report stating that Canada's drone program makes AIRO eligible to compete for military drone work through July 2031, a MarketBeat report stating the stock is rated "Hold" by sell-side brokerages, and a Morningstar piece linking AIRO momentum to GoDaddy's AI-driven revenue outlook. The Stock Titan item is the most concrete business-development catalyst in the feed, while the others are largely market commentary. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's specific product and customer mix within Aerospace, and what share of the $90.9M FY 2025 revenue comes from defense versus commercial sources?
  • What is the path to positive free cash flow, given FY 2025 FCF of $-35.5M and FCF yield of -20.68%?
  • What are the cash and total liability balances, since cash is reported as N/A in both periods?
  • What is the status and size of the military drone opportunity referenced in the Stock Titan headline, and what is its expected timing?
  • What drove the 52-week decline from $16.61 to a current price of $5.44, and do the analyst estimate revisions cited in the news feed reflect fundamental deterioration?

AIRO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AIRO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AIRO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.16?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AIRO 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AIRO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.79 (-11.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AIRO (E • RQD 22/100) a Buy at $5.44?

Welcome to the AIRO (AIRO Group Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 22/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Aerospace. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.41 (-18.9%)
Spot @ $5.44

Pump the brakes on AIRO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AIRO, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 59.9% gross margins. Unless AIRO Group Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.91 (+27.0%)
Spot @ $5.44

AIRO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AIRO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Aerospace and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.44 (52-wk range $4.53 - $16.61), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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