AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$5.16 -5.15% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.10

AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $162.8M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AIRO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AIRO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $5.16 (-5.15% 1D, market cap $162.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AIRO ranks #466 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AIRO compare to DPRO and SIF in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AIRO carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of -3.1%. By comparison, DPRO (Draganfly Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $136.4M) and SIF (SIFCO Industries Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.4%, cap $125.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HOVR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while SIF leads on capital efficiency (0.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIRO?
β–Ό

Per AIRO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001927958), AIRO Group Holdings Inc. generated $90.9M in revenue (+4.6% YoY), -$4.1M in net income, and -$35.5M in free cash flow against $774.1M in total assets and $500.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.10 (-1.12%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510021
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (3)SEC (7)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target
$17 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AIRO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AIRO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AIRO SCORES 21/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.68 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+5/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 5% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 39.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$5.67-12.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$4.97+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
24
Grade E$5.05+2.2% Next Q
Current
21
Grade E$5.16-11.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (29) β†’ E (21)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AIRO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AIRO currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.46) and Max Pain ($5.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.25.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AIROβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAIRO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How AIRO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)
Revenue$90.9MGross Profit $54.4M (59.9%)Cost of Sales $36.5MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $54.4MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY24
Rev $86.9M
FY25
Rev $90.9M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$90.9M59.9%-31.6%-$4.1M-$35.5M-3.1%
FY 2024$86.9M67.1%-20.1%-$38.7M$20.7M-2.5%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AIRO)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AIRO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AIRO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.73%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $5.44H $5.44L $5.16C $5.16VOL 373.8K
RES: $13.95SUP: $4.38SMA50: $6.46SMA200: $7.99
$14.46$11.77$9.08$6.39$3.69RES $13.95SUP $4.38$5.162026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AIRO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AIRO today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AIRO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AIRO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AIRO)

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AIRO vs. DPRO, SIF, EH, HOVR)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) ranks #466 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #356 by equity capitalization ($162.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HOVR leads on earnings valuation at 9.9x trailing P/E, while SIF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 0.4% ROIC and 12.5% gross margin. DPRO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with AIRO at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AIRO ACTIVE
AIRO Group Holdings Inc.
E 21/100 β€” 59.9% -3.1% -5.15% $162.8M Benchmark Subject
DPRO
Draganfly Inc.
D 45/100 β€” β€” β€” -4.88% $136.4M /dpro-vs-airo β†’
SIF
SIFCO Industries Inc.
D- 40/100 β€” 12.5% 0.4% -5.14% $125.7M /sif-vs-airo β†’
EH
EHang Holdings Limited ADS
E 18/100 β€” 61.5% -27.9% -2.18% $272.3M /eh-vs-airo β†’
HOVR
New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. Class A Ordinary Share
E 34/100 9.9x β€” β€” -5.91% $80.2M /hovr-vs-airo β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001927958

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) reported GAAP revenue of $90.9M (+4.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $86.9M ) , GAAP net income of -$4.1M, operating cash flow of -$32.4M, and free cash flow of -$35.5M (-271.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AIRO closed FY2025 with $774.1M in total assets against $500.0K in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.68, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $90.9M -$4.1M -$32.4M -$35.5M $774.1M $500.0K
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $86.9M -$38.7M $21.5M $20.7M $701.0M $688.0K

3. AIRO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AIRO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AIRO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $5.16 (-5.15% 1D, market cap $162.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AIRO ranks #466 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AIRO compare to DPRO and SIF in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), AIRO carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of -3.1%. By comparison, DPRO (Draganfly Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $136.4M) and SIF (SIFCO Industries Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.4%, cap $125.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HOVR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while SIF leads on capital efficiency (0.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIRO?

Per AIRO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001927958), AIRO Group Holdings Inc. generated $90.9M in revenue (+4.6% YoY), -$4.1M in net income, and -$35.5M in free cash flow against $774.1M in total assets and $500.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AIRO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AIRO last traded at $5.16 (-5.15% on volume of 373,756 shares), positioning the stock -20.12% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.46) and -35.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.99). Across its 52-week range of $4.53 to $16.43, AIRO sits at the 5.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($4.51 to $5.81).

AIRO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

How profitable is AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), AIRO converted $90.9M of revenue into a 59.9% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 21/100 (E) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AIRO β€” AIRO Group Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:42:06Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AIRO scores 22 out of 100 and receives a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell β€” Forensic Risk / Avoid." Each of the five pillars is scored out of 20. The Fundamental Cash Engine scores 3/20, with ROIC at -3.1% and FCF yield at -20.68%, indicating that the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow relative to its market value. Whale/13F Flow scores 3/20, reflecting weak institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 3/20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 6/20 with a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 7/20, with an Altman Z-Score of 2.68, a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the pillar profile means the rating's negative signal comes primarily from cash generation and ownership flow rather than from balance-sheet leverage, which is comparatively modest. An upside case would need to rest on a turnaround in operating cash generation, since the current FCF yield is deeply negative. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because forward P/E and EV/EBITDA are not available in source data, and earnings-based multiples are also unavailable. The stock's 52-week range of $4.53 - $16.61 against a current price of $5.44 shows substantial drawdown, but the source data does not establish whether that reflects a re-rating of fundamentals or a shift in sentiment. The evidence supports caution and further diligence rather than a constructive stance.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the most prominent item is a Yahoo Finance report, flagged RED / RISK WATCH, describing a reset in analyst earnings expectations and a decline in fair value. Several other items are flagged YELLOW / MARKET WIRE, including a Moomoo options-chain report, a Simply Wall St forecast and analyst predictions piece, a Stock Titan report stating that Canada's drone program makes AIRO eligible to compete for military drone work through July 2031, a MarketBeat report stating the stock is rated "Hold" by sell-side brokerages, and a Morningstar piece linking AIRO momentum to GoDaddy's AI-driven revenue outlook. The Stock Titan item is the most concrete business-development catalyst in the feed, while the others are largely market commentary. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's specific product and customer mix within Aerospace, and what share of the $90.9M FY 2025 revenue comes from defense versus commercial sources?
  • What is the path to positive free cash flow, given FY 2025 FCF of $-35.5M and FCF yield of -20.68%?
  • What are the cash and total liability balances, since cash is reported as N/A in both periods?
  • What is the status and size of the military drone opportunity referenced in the Stock Titan headline, and what is its expected timing?
  • What drove the 52-week decline from $16.61 to a current price of $5.44, and do the analyst estimate revisions cited in the news feed reflect fundamental deterioration?

AIRO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AIRO Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AIRO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $5.16?

πŸ‚ 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AIRO 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AIRO:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.79 (-11.9%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AIRO (E β€’ RQD 22/100) a Buy at $5.44?

Welcome to the AIRO (AIRO Group Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 22/100 (Roarable Strong Sell β€” Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Aerospace. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.41 (-18.9%)
Spot @ $5.44

Pump the brakes on AIRO β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AIRO, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 59.9% gross margins. Unless AIRO Group Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.91 (+27.0%)
Spot @ $5.44

AIRO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AIRO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Aerospace and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.44 (52-wk range $4.53 - $16.61), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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