Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.7% Move

$108.05 -1.75% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $107.50

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $9.08B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALSN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ALSN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $108.05 (-1.75% 1D, market cap $9.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALSN ranks #316 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALSN compare to APTV and ALV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), ALSN carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.6x, gross margin of 48.6%, and ROIC of 21.3%. By comparison, APTV (Aptiv PLC) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 55.9x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $9.23B) and ALV (Autoliv Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 23.2%, cap $8.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALV leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while ALV leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALSN?
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Per ALSN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001411207), Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. generated $3.01B in revenue (-6.7% YoY), $623.0M in net income, and $661.0M in free cash flow against $6.08B in total assets and $2.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (49% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $107.50 (-0.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 22% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510061
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk D
Cash (16)Whales (9)SEC (12)Macro (7)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
$145 Bull$110 Base$85 Bear
📬 FREE ALSN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALSN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALSN SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22% FCF Margin ($661.0M FCF) & 48.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.3) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$111.62-1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$109.66-1.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$107.67+0.4% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$108.05+0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALSN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, ALSN faces multiple-compression risk if 14.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($116.85) or 200D SMA ($118.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($109.51) toward Bear Floor ($85.42).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALSN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALSN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.7% Swing Band

±$6.16 Expected Swing
$101.89 (-5.7%)Spot $108.05$114.21 (+5.7%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ALSN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 61/100

Trailing EPS: $7.54 • YoY Revenue Growth: -6.7%

Model Bullish Setup (61/100)Model Risk Weight (39/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$3.01B$623.0M$661.0M48.6%
FY 20242024-12-31$3.23B$731.0M$658.0M47.4%
FY 20232023-12-31$3.04B$673.0M$647.4M48.6%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ALSN & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ALSN
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALSN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.27%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $109.3H $110.0L $108.1C $108.1VOL 664.6K
RES: $135.6SUP: $105.3SMA50: $116.9SMA200: $118.5
$137.1$127.1$117.1$107.2$97.19RES $135.6SUP $105.3$108.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALSN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
6.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALSN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALSN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALSN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALSN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #316 of 1011 ⚔️ APTV vs ALSN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ALSN vs. APTV, ALV, BWA, MOD)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) ranks #316 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #181 by equity capitalization ($9.08B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALV leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while ALV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.2% ROIC and 19.2% gross margin. ALV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with ALSN at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALSN ACTIVE
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.
C- 61/100 14.6x 48.6% 21.3% -1.75% $9.08B Benchmark Subject
APTV
Aptiv PLC
D 51/100 55.9x 19.1% 6.2% -1.12% $9.23B /aptv-vs-alsn →
ALV
Autoliv Inc.
C+ 69/100 11.5x 19.2% 23.2% +0.50% $8.42B /alv-vs-alsn →
BWA
BorgWarner Inc.
D- 37/100 39.2x 18.7% 5.5% -3.13% $10.86B /bwa-vs-alsn →
MOD
Modine Manufacturing Company
D+ 54/100 60.8x 23.0% 17.0% -6.51% $7.38B /mod-vs-alsn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001411207

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) reported GAAP revenue of $3.01B (-6.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.23B , and -0.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $623.0M, operating cash flow of $836.0M, and free cash flow of $661.0M (+0.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALSN closed FY2025 with $6.08B in total assets against $2.88B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.61, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.01B $623.0M $836.0M $661.0M $6.08B $2.88B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.23B $731.0M $801.0M $658.0M $5.34B $2.40B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.04B $673.0M $784.0M $647.4M $5.00B $1.17B

3. ALSN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALSN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ALSN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $108.05 (-1.75% 1D, market cap $9.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALSN ranks #316 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALSN compare to APTV and ALV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), ALSN carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.6x, gross margin of 48.6%, and ROIC of 21.3%. By comparison, APTV (Aptiv PLC) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 55.9x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $9.23B) and ALV (Autoliv Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 23.2%, cap $8.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALV leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while ALV leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALSN?

Per ALSN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001411207), Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. generated $3.01B in revenue (-6.7% YoY), $623.0M in net income, and $661.0M in free cash flow against $6.08B in total assets and $2.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (49% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALSN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALSN last traded at $108.05 (-1.75% on volume of 656,791 shares), positioning the stock -7.53% below its 50-day simple moving average ($116.85) and -8.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($118.47). Across its 52-week range of $78.19 to $137.62, ALSN sits at the 50.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($101.89 to $114.21).

ALSN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ALSN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ALSN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.7% event move for ALSN, spanning a range between $101.89 and $114.21.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ALSN — Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:10Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ALSN scores 61 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with a verdict of "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 21.3% and an FCF yield of 7.28%. These are the strongest inputs in the rating and point to efficient capital use and meaningful free cash generation relative to the market value.
  • Whale 13F Flow (9 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score in the lower-middle range. The source data does not include 13F holdings detail, so the drivers of this score cannot be verified here.
  • Insider Conviction (17 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow is the highest-scoring pillar. The underlying transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, the beta of 0.98 and sector sensitivity score low. This suggests the stock's sensitivity to the broader market and its sector cycle is a meaningful constraint in the current rating framework.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (12 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score of 2.61, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.55 support a moderate score. Leverage is a visible tradeoff.

For a prospective investor, the rating describes a business with strong returns on capital and solid cash generation, offset by a macro-sensitivity profile and a leveraged balance sheet. The valuation (P/E TTM of 14.6, forward P/E of 13.6) is presented in the source as moderate relative to the company's cash generation, but whether that discount is attractive depends on how the forensic and macro pillars evolve. The rating is a structured summary of the source data, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
109.98$9.08B14.613.610.27.541%0.98$78.19 - $137.6221.3%

Business

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto Parts:O.E.M. industry, per the company profile. The source data does not itemize the company's products, customers, or revenue model beyond these classifications. Per the SEC financials, the company reported revenue of $3010.0M for FY 2025, indicating its operating scale. How the company makes money beyond this figure is not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$3010.0M$880.0M$623.0MN/A$661.0M$1495.0M$2885.0M
FY 2024$3225.0M$992.0M$731.0MN/A$658.0M$781.0M$2395.0M
FY 2023$3035.0M$919.0M$673.0MN/A$647.4MN/A$1168.8M

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $3225.0M in FY 2024 to $3010.0M in FY 2025, and net income fell from $731.0M to $623.0M, while free cash flow held near $661.0M. Per the market data, the gross margin is 48.6%, operating margin 29.2%, and net margin 20.7%, with ROIC at 21.3%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.61 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Debt rose from $1168.8M in FY 2023 to $2885.0M in FY 2025, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 1.55, so the balance sheet has taken on more leverage over the reported periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all related to ALSN, each flagged "RISK WATCH" with a RED light. Headlines include a Yahoo Finance piece asking whether auto-tire-truck stocks are lagging ALSN this year, a Seeking Alpha piece titled that the stock is "Too Cheap To Drive Past," a Benzinga five-year ownership return piece, a Simply Wall St forecast and analyst predictions piece, a Yahoo Finance piece on whether the options market is predicting a spike, and a MarketBeat piece reporting a move to "Strong-Buy" by Zacks Research. The summaries are generic and do not disclose underlying figures, so the content of each claim cannot be verified from the source data. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific products, end markets, and customer concentration behind the $3010.0M FY 2025 revenue?
  • Why did revenue and net income decline from FY 2024 to FY 2025, and what drove the increase in debt from $2395.0M to $2885.0M?
  • The EPS field is N/A for all reported periods; what is the reconciled per-share earnings history?
  • What are the consensus rating, price targets, and any 13F or insider transactions behind the RQD pillar scores?
  • What sector and supply-chain dependencies explain the beta of 0.98 and the low macro-regime fit score?

ALSN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALSN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALSN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $108.05?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALSN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALSN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $118.78 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ALSN (C- • RQD 61/100) a Buy at $109.98?

Welcome to the ALSN (Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 61/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Auto Parts:O.E.M.. Bulls point to capital efficiency (21.3% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $91.28 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $109.98

Pump the brakes on ALSN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ALSN, but look at what you are paying: 14.6x trailing P/E with 48.6% gross margins. Unless Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $131.98 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $109.98

ALSN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ALSN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Auto Parts:O.E.M. and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $109.98 (52-wk range $78.19 - $137.62), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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