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Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$113.09 +4.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $113.83

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $8.92B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALSN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ALSN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $113.09 (+4.67% 1D, market cap $8.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALSN ranks #343 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALSN compare to APTV and ALV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), ALSN carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.6x, gross margin of 48.6%, and ROIC of 21.3%. By comparison, APTV (Aptiv PLC) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 55.9x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $9.12B) and ALV (Autoliv Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 23.2%, cap $8.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALV leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while ALV leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALSN?
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Per ALSN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001411207), Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. generated $3.01B in revenue (-6.7% YoY), $623.0M in net income, and $661.0M in free cash flow against $6.08B in total assets and $2.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (49% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $113.83 (+0.65%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 22% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk D
Cash (16)Whales (7)SEC (12)Macro (7)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$145 Bull$114 Base$89 Bear
📬 FREE ALSN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALSN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALSN SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 22% FCF Margin ($661.0M FCF) & 48.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (40.9) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$110.70+0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$110.94-1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$109.30+3.5% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$113.09+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALSN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, ALSN faces multiple-compression risk if 14.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($116.38) or 200D SMA ($118.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($113.60) toward Bear Floor ($88.61).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALSN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALSN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±5.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ALSN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ALSN.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ALSN & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ALSN
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALSN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.36%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $110.0H $113.1L $108.1C $113.1VOL 656.8K
RES: $135.6SUP: $105.3SMA50: $116.4SMA200: $118.5
$137.1$127.1$117.1$107.2$97.19RES $135.6SUP $105.3$113.12026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALSN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALSN Butterfly Map → + Track ALSN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALSN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALSN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALSN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALSN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #343 of 1011 ⚔️ APTV vs ALSN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ALSN vs. APTV, ALV, BWA, MOD)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) ranks #343 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #181 by equity capitalization ($8.92B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALV leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while ALV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.2% ROIC and 19.2% gross margin. ALV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with ALSN at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALSN ACTIVE
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.
C- 59/100 14.6x 48.6% 21.3% +4.67% $8.92B Benchmark Subject
APTV
Aptiv PLC
D 51/100 55.9x 19.1% 6.2% +0.68% $9.12B /aptv-vs-alsn →
ALV
Autoliv Inc.
B- 71/100 11.5x 19.2% 23.2% +4.39% $8.46B /alv-vs-alsn →
BWA
BorgWarner Inc.
D- 36/100 39.2x 18.7% 5.5% +0.23% $10.37B /bwa-vs-alsn →
MOD
Modine Manufacturing Company
D+ 54/100 60.8x 23.0% 17.0% -4.95% $6.90B /mod-vs-alsn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001411207

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) reported GAAP revenue of $3.01B (-6.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.23B , and -0.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $623.0M, operating cash flow of $836.0M, and free cash flow of $661.0M (+0.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALSN closed FY2025 with $6.08B in total assets against $2.88B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.61, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.01B $623.0M $836.0M $661.0M $6.08B $2.88B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.23B $731.0M $801.0M $658.0M $5.34B $2.40B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.04B $673.0M $784.0M $647.4M $5.00B $1.17B

3. ALSN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALSN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ALSN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $113.09 (+4.67% 1D, market cap $8.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALSN ranks #343 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALSN compare to APTV and ALV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), ALSN carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.6x, gross margin of 48.6%, and ROIC of 21.3%. By comparison, APTV (Aptiv PLC) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 55.9x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $9.12B) and ALV (Autoliv Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 23.2%, cap $8.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALV leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while ALV leads on capital efficiency (23.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALSN?

Per ALSN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001411207), Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. generated $3.01B in revenue (-6.7% YoY), $623.0M in net income, and $661.0M in free cash flow against $6.08B in total assets and $2.88B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (49% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALSN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALSN last traded at $113.09 (+4.67% on volume of 1,305,843 shares), positioning the stock -2.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($116.38) and -4.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($118.47). Across its 52-week range of $78.19 to $137.62, ALSN sits at the 58.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($106.87 to $119.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALSN RQD Cockpit ALSN 12M Forecast ALSN Earnings & Move ALSN Dividends & DRIP ALSN Insiders & 13F ALSN Whale Options ALSN Profit Sankey ALSN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALSN — Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $113.09 (+4.67% 1D, market capitalization $8.92B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 21.3%, gross margin of 48.6%, operating margin of 29.2%, and free cash flow yield of 7.28%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (17/20): Incorporates a 0.98x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.61, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.55x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto Parts:O.E.M. Industry. The company reported revenue of $3.01B for FY 2025, indicating its operating scale.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) reported $3.01B in annual revenue (up from $3.23B in FY2024, -6.7% YoY) and $623.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.04B revenue, $673.0M net income) through FY2025, ALSN scaled operating cash flow to $836.0M and free cash flow to $661.0M, backed by $6.08B in total assets against $2.88B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Strong cash generator (49% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $78.19 – $137.62 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 14.6x trailing P/E and 10.2x EV/EBITDA against 29.2% operating margins and a 0.98x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Auto Parts:O.E.M. (Consumer Discretionary), ALSN carries a macro regime beta of 0.98 and gross margin of 48.6%.

  • Key Question #1: Can ALSN sustain or expand its 29.2% operating margin and 21.3% ROIC against Auto Parts:O.E.M. Peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.01B and free cash flow of $661.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.88B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALSN's 13.6x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.98x)?

ALSN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALSN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALSN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $113.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALSN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALSN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $137.22 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 21.3% and an FCF yield of 7.28% with a forward P/E of 13.6 suggest strong capital efficiency at a moderate valuation.

ROIC of 21.3% and an FCF yield of 7.28% with a forward P/E of 13.6 suggest strong capital efficiency at a moderate valuation.. When you look under the hood at ALSN, Fundamental Cash Engine is 16/20 with 48.6% gross margins and 21.3% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (7/20) has been quietly accumulating below $137.62. My 12M target is $137.22.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 59/100 quality, though with 0.98 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $108.05 and keeping dry powder in case we test $100.49.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $89.68 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $108.05

Debt rose from $1.17B to $2.88B while revenue and net income declined in FY 2025, and the macro regime score is only 7 of 20.

Careful chasing ALSN at $108.05. Debt rose from $1.17B to $2.88B while revenue and net income declined in FY 2025, and the macro regime score is only 7 of 20.. Gross margin is 48.6%, but operating margin is 29.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $89.68 on multiple compression.

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