Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $0.38 (-10.26% 1D, market cap $24.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, BAER ranks #258 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), BAER carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 42.1%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, UAVS (AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $29.1M) and MOB (Mobilicom Limited) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $42.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BAER leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while UAVS leads on capital efficiency (-32.4% ROIC).
Per BAER's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001941536), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. generated $122.8M in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $4.1M in net income, and -$64.2M in free cash flow against $330.3M in total assets and $212.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
While BAER currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.77) and Max Pain ($0.40) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.61.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) dropped -10.26% to $0.38, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.39 – $3.44). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (42.1% gross margin) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
BELGRADE, Mont., Oct. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (“Bridger” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: BAER, BAERW), one of the nation’s leading aerial firefighting companies, today announced tha
Agreement provides for dedicated deployment of three Basler BT-67 special mission aircraft configured with advanced sensor technology Establishes long-term, year-round recurring work for Bridger to support Metatek’s glob
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +24.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAER today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAER. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) ranks #258 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #429 by equity capitalization ($24.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BAER leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while UAVS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -32.4% ROIC and 51.8% gross margin. BAER currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 47/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAER
ACTIVE
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. | D | 47/100 | 5.8x | 42.1% | — | -10.26% | $24.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| UAVS AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. | E | 25/100 | — | 51.8% | -32.4% | -14.48% | $29.1M | /uavs-vs-baer → |
| MOB Mobilicom Limited | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | -5.81% | $42.1M | /mob-vs-baer → |
| DUKR DUKE Robotics Corp. | D- | 35/100 | 11.7x | — | -35.0% | -6.51% | $13.2M | /dukr-vs-baer → |
| EVTL Vertical Aerospace Ltd. | D | 46/100 | — | — | — | -5.38% | $72.1M | /evtl-vs-baer → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) reported GAAP revenue of $122.8M (+24.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $98.6M , and +84.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.1M, operating cash flow of $16.7M, and free cash flow of -$64.2M (-1318.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAER closed FY2025 with $330.3M in total assets against $212.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $122.8M | $4.1M | $16.7M | -$64.2M | $330.3M | $212.4M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $98.6M | -$15.6M | $9.4M | $5.3M | $290.8M | $202.5M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $66.7M | -$77.4M | -$26.8M | -$26.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $0.38 (-10.26% 1D, market cap $24.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, BAER ranks #258 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), BAER carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 42.1%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, UAVS (AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $29.1M) and MOB (Mobilicom Limited) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $42.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BAER leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while UAVS leads on capital efficiency (-32.4% ROIC).
Per BAER's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001941536), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. generated $122.8M in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $4.1M in net income, and -$64.2M in free cash flow against $330.3M in total assets and $212.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
BAER last traded at $0.38 (-10.26% on volume of 425,343 shares), positioning the stock -50.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.77) and -78.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.74). Across its 52-week range of $0.39 to $3.44, BAER sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 26.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.43).
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $0.38 (-10.26% 1D, market capitalization $24.8M).
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Aerospace industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model in detail.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) reported $122.8M in annual revenue (up from $98.6M in FY2024, +24.6% YoY) and $4.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($66.7M revenue, -$77.4M net income) through FY2025, BAER scaled operating cash flow to $16.7M and free cash flow to -$64.2M, backed by $330.3M in total assets against $212.4M in total debt.
Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations are — beyond the Industrials / Aerospace classification. Watch items from the news feed include the listing-rule disclosure and the reliance on fleet-based contracts (wildfire response and survey work), since these are the operational links the news describes.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Picked up a starter position in BAER in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $0.42. Revenue grew from $66.7M in FY 2023 to $122.8M in FY 2025 and the forensic balance sheet scores 15 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.. Trading inside a $0.39–$3.44 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Aerospace multiples expand this quarter.
@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 5.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Aerospace. If gross margin (42.1%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
Fading this rally in BAER at $0.42. Free cash flow was -$64.2M in FY 2025, ROIC is 0%, and a continued listing rule deficiency has been disclosed.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $0.42 (52-wk range $0.39–$3.44), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.
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