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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$0.38 -10.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.37

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $24.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BAER stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $0.38 (-10.26% 1D, market cap $24.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, BAER ranks #258 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BAER compare to UAVS and MOB in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), BAER carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 42.1%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, UAVS (AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $29.1M) and MOB (Mobilicom Limited) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $42.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BAER leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while UAVS leads on capital efficiency (-32.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAER?
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Per BAER's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001941536), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. generated $122.8M in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $4.1M in net income, and -$64.2M in free cash flow against $330.3M in total assets and $212.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.37 (-2.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (8)Whales (5)SEC (15)Macro (6)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.3% Base Target
$4 Bull$0 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE BAER RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BAER)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BAER SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$0.56-1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$0.55-14.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$0.47-19.1% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$0.38-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BAER Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BAER currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.77) and Max Pain ($0.40) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BAER• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BAER Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (BAER)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for BAER.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BAER)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BAER's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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BAER // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -81.00%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $0.40H $0.42L $0.38C $0.38VOL 412.4K
RES: $1.29SUP: $0.14SMA50: $0.77SMA200: $1.74
$2.77$2.12$1.47$0.83$0.18RES $1.29SUP $0.14$0.382026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BAER Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BAER Butterfly Map → + Track BAER →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +24.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BAER today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BAER. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BAER today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BAER)

Industrials Rank #258 of 486 ⚔️ UAVS vs BAER Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (BAER vs. UAVS, MOB, DUKR, EVTL)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) ranks #258 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #429 by equity capitalization ($24.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BAER leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while UAVS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -32.4% ROIC and 51.8% gross margin. BAER currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BAER ACTIVE
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc.
D 47/100 5.8x 42.1% — -10.26% $24.8M Benchmark Subject
UAVS
AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.
E 25/100 — 51.8% -32.4% -14.48% $29.1M /uavs-vs-baer →
MOB
Mobilicom Limited
D 45/100 — — — -5.81% $42.1M /mob-vs-baer →
DUKR
DUKE Robotics Corp.
D- 35/100 11.7x — -35.0% -6.51% $13.2M /dukr-vs-baer →
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace Ltd.
D 46/100 — — — -5.38% $72.1M /evtl-vs-baer →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001941536 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) reported GAAP revenue of $122.8M (+24.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $98.6M , and +84.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.1M, operating cash flow of $16.7M, and free cash flow of -$64.2M (-1318.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, BAER closed FY2025 with $330.3M in total assets against $212.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $122.8M $4.1M $16.7M -$64.2M $330.3M $212.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $98.6M -$15.6M $9.4M $5.3M $290.8M $202.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $66.7M -$77.4M -$26.8M -$26.8M — —

3. BAER Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BAER stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BAER) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $0.38 (-10.26% 1D, market cap $24.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, BAER ranks #258 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BAER compare to UAVS and MOB in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), BAER carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 42.1%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, UAVS (AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc.) holds a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $29.1M) and MOB (Mobilicom Limited) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $42.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BAER leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while UAVS leads on capital efficiency (-32.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BAER?

Per BAER's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001941536), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. generated $122.8M in revenue (+24.6% YoY), $4.1M in net income, and -$64.2M in free cash flow against $330.3M in total assets and $212.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BAER trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BAER last traded at $0.38 (-10.26% on volume of 425,343 shares), positioning the stock -50.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.77) and -78.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.74). Across its 52-week range of $0.39 to $3.44, BAER sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 26.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.43).

Direct Sub-Reports: BAER RQD Cockpit BAER 12M Forecast BAER Earnings & Move BAER Dividends & DRIP BAER Insiders & 13F BAER Whale Options BAER Profit Sankey BAER News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BAER — Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $0.38 (-10.26% 1D, market capitalization $24.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of 42.1%, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Aerospace industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model in detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) reported $122.8M in annual revenue (up from $98.6M in FY2024, +24.6% YoY) and $4.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($66.7M revenue, -$77.4M net income) through FY2025, BAER scaled operating cash flow to $16.7M and free cash flow to -$64.2M, backed by $330.3M in total assets against $212.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 47/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.39 – $3.44 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 5.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations are — beyond the Industrials / Aerospace classification. Watch items from the news feed include the listing-rule disclosure and the reliance on fleet-based contracts (wildfire response and survey work), since these are the operational links the news describes.

  • Key Question #1: Can BAER sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Aerospace peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $122.8M and free cash flow of -$64.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $212.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BAER's 4.9x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BAER Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Inc. (BAER) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BAER Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BAER Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.38?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BAER 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BAER:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.49 (+16.7%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $66.7M in FY 2023 to $122.8M in FY 2025 and the forensic balance sheet scores 15 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/

Picked up a starter position in BAER in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $0.42. Revenue grew from $66.7M in FY 2023 to $122.8M in FY 2025 and the forensic balance sheet scores 15 of 20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.. Trading inside a $0.39–$3.44 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Aerospace multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 5.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Aerospace. If gross margin (42.1%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.36 (-14.3%)
Spot @ $0.42

Free cash flow was -$64.2M in FY 2025, ROIC is 0%, and a continued listing rule deficiency has been disclosed.

Fading this rally in BAER at $0.42. Free cash flow was -$64.2M in FY 2025, ROIC is 0%, and a continued listing rule deficiency has been disclosed.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $0.42 (52-wk range $0.39–$3.44), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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