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Stock Ratings / Technology / DUOL / earnings
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Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9% Move

$135.27 +2.80% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $136.28

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (72.2% gross margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $6.16B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on DUOL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DUOL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Duolingo Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $135.27 (+2.80% 1D, market cap $6.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, DUOL ranks #45 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DUOL compare to YOU and BOX in the Technology sector?
▼

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), DUOL carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of 72.2%, and ROIC of 18.4%. By comparison, YOU (Clear Secure Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 26.6%, cap $6.22B) and BOX (Box Inc.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 51.5x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $5.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DUOL leads on earnings multiple (15.4x) while YOU leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DUOL?
▼

Per DUOL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001562088), Duolingo Inc. generated $1.04B in revenue (+38.7% YoY), $414.1M in net income, and $369.7M in free cash flow against $1.99B in total assets and $290.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (72.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $136.27 (+0.74%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 35.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510075
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk A-
Cash (17)Whales (7)SEC (18)Macro (16)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target
$294 Bull$146 Base$111 Bear
📬 FREE DUOL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DUOL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DUOL SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.42 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 35.6% FCF Margin ($369.7M FCF) & 72.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
83
Grade A$139.73-1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
80
Grade A-$137.32-1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
78
Grade A-$135.21+0% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$135.27+7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A (83) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the DUOL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, DUOL faces multiple-compression risk if 15.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 69.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($144.55) or 200D SMA ($123.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($145.62) toward Bear Floor ($110.92).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DUOL• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DUOL Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9% Swing Band

±$12.17 Expected Swing
$123.10 (-9%)Spot $135.27$147.44 (+9%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

DUOL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 75/100

Trailing EPS: $8.85 • YoY Revenue Growth: 38.7%

Model Bullish Setup (75/100)Model Risk Weight (25/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.04B$414.1M$369.7M72.2%
FY 20242024-12-31$748.0M$88.3M$273.4M72.8%
FY 20232023-12-31$531.1M$16.1M$129.7M72.2%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating DUOL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on DUOL
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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DUOL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +22.72%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $136.4H $136.4L $131.6C $135.3VOL 777.3K
RES: $192.7SUP: $131.6SMA50: $144.6SMA200: $123.7
$216.3$184.4$152.5$120.5$88.59RES $192.7SUP $131.6$135.32026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DUOL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DUOL Butterfly Map → + Track DUOL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
7.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +38.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DUOL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DUOL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DUOL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DUOL)

Technology Rank #45 of 715 ⚔️ YOU vs DUOL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (DUOL vs. YOU, BOX, OCTV, KVYO)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) ranks #45 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #190 by equity capitalization ($6.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DUOL leads on earnings valuation at 15.4x trailing P/E, while YOU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BOX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with DUOL at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DUOL ACTIVE
Duolingo Inc.
B 75/100 15.4x 72.2% 18.4% +2.80% $6.16B Benchmark Subject
YOU
Clear Secure Inc.
C+ 68/100 37.2x — 26.6% +4.26% $6.22B /you-vs-duol →
BOX
Box Inc.
B+ 76/100 51.5x 79.2% 13.8% -0.48% $5.96B /box-vs-duol →
OCTV
Octave Intelligence plc (Class B)
C- 61/100 — — — -2.53% $5.83B /octv-vs-duol →
KVYO
Klaviyo Inc. (Series A)
C- 61/100 — 74.7% -11.5% +8.24% $5.73B /kvyo-vs-duol →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001562088 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.04B (+38.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $748.0M , and +95.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $414.1M, operating cash flow of $387.8M, and free cash flow of $369.7M (+35.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, DUOL closed FY2025 with $1.99B in total assets against $290.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.42, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.04B $414.1M $387.8M $369.7M $1.99B $290.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $748.0M $88.3M $285.5M $273.4M $1.30B $214.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $531.1M $16.1M $153.6M $129.7M $3.51B $821.3M

3. DUOL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DUOL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Duolingo Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $135.27 (+2.80% 1D, market cap $6.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, DUOL ranks #45 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DUOL compare to YOU and BOX in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), DUOL carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of 72.2%, and ROIC of 18.4%. By comparison, YOU (Clear Secure Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 26.6%, cap $6.22B) and BOX (Box Inc.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 51.5x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $5.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DUOL leads on earnings multiple (15.4x) while YOU leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DUOL?

Per DUOL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001562088), Duolingo Inc. generated $1.04B in revenue (+38.7% YoY), $414.1M in net income, and $369.7M in free cash flow against $1.99B in total assets and $290.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (72.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DUOL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DUOL last traded at $135.27 (+2.80% on volume of 1,122,515 shares), positioning the stock -6.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($144.55) and +9.40% above its 200-day simple moving average ($123.65). Across its 52-week range of $87.89 to $279.98, DUOL sits at the 24.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($123.10 to $147.44).

Direct Sub-Reports: DUOL RQD Cockpit DUOL 12M Forecast DUOL Earnings & Move DUOL Dividends & DRIP DUOL Insiders & 13F DUOL Whale Options DUOL Profit Sankey DUOL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

DUOL — Duolingo Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 75/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $135.27 (+2.80% 1D, market capitalization $6.16B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.4%, gross margin of 72.2%, operating margin of 13.1%, and free cash flow yield of 5.79%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (16/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.30x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 7.42, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Duolingo Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating within the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) reported $1.04B in annual revenue (up from $748.0M in FY2024, +38.7% YoY) and $414.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($531.1M revenue, $16.1M net income) through FY2025, DUOL scaled operating cash flow to $387.8M and free cash flow to $369.7M, backed by $1.99B in total assets against $290.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 75/100): Strong cash generator (72.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $87.89 – $279.98 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 15.4x trailing P/E and 37.2x EV/EBITDA against 13.1% operating margins and a 1.30x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply chain: NONE (). The butterfly links list is empty and no proprietary signals are provided. Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations: — beyond the sector and industry classification. Second-order bottlenecks: — The practical watch item for an investor is the growth-deceleration commentary and the pending class action noted in the news feed, which are the only second-order risk signals in the provided material.

  • Key Question #1: Can DUOL sustain or expand its 13.1% operating margin and 18.4% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.04B and free cash flow of $369.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $290.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is DUOL's 12.9x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.30x)?

DUOL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to DUOL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DUOL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $135.27?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DUOL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on DUOL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $171.07 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong balance-sheet forensics and cash generation, with an Altman Z-Score of 7.42 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, support a 77 RQD ratin

Here is why I am bullish on DUOL here at $131.59: Strong balance-sheet forensics and cash generation, with an Altman Z-Score of 7.42 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, support a 77 RQD rating.. Compare DUOL's 13.1% operating margin and 18.4% ROIC against the rest of Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $125.01 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 15.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. If gross margin (72.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $107.90 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $131.59

The CEO flagged slower growth and a securities class action has been filed, while EV/EBITDA of 37.2 sits far above a trailing P/E of 15

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short DUOL above $131.59. The CEO flagged slower growth and a securities class action has been filed, while EV/EBITDA of 37.2 sits far above a trailing P/E of 15.4.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20) and FCF yield (5.79%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $268.97.

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