How profitable is Duolingo Inc. (DUOL)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), DUOL converted $1.0B of revenue into a 72.2% gross margin, 13.1% operating margin, and $369.7M in free cash flow (35.6% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Technology / DUOL / financials

YOU (68) BOX (76) OCTV (61) KVYO (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$135.27 +2.80% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $136.28

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (72.2% gross margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $6.16B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on DUOL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DUOL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Duolingo Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $135.27 (+2.80% 1D, market cap $6.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, DUOL ranks #45 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DUOL compare to YOU and BOX in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), DUOL carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of 72.2%, and ROIC of 18.4%. By comparison, YOU (Clear Secure Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 26.6%, cap $6.22B) and BOX (Box Inc.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 51.5x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $5.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DUOL leads on earnings multiple (15.4x) while YOU leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DUOL?

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Per DUOL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001562088), Duolingo Inc. generated $1.04B in revenue (+38.7% YoY), $414.1M in net income, and $369.7M in free cash flow against $1.99B in total assets and $290.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (72.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $136.27 (+0.74%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 35.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk A-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DUOL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY DUOL SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.42 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 35.6% FCF Margin ($369.7M FCF) & 72.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A$139.73-1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade A-$137.32-1.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A-$135.21+0% Next Q

Current

Grade B$135.27+7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A (83) → B (75)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the DUOL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, DUOL faces multiple-compression risk if 15.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 69.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($144.55) or 200D SMA ($123.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($145.62) toward Bear Floor ($110.92).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DUOL• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “DUOL Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How DUOL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$369.7M (35.6% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $531.1M

FY24

Rev $748.0M

FY25

Rev $1.04B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.04B	72.2%	13.1%	$414.1M	$369.7M	17.8%
FY 2024	$748.0M	72.8%	8.4%	$88.3M	$273.4M	19.5%
FY 2023	$531.1M	72.2%	-2.5%	$16.1M	$129.7M	-0.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DUOL)

✓Walkthrough of DUOL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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DUOL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +22.72%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $136.4H $136.4L $131.6C $135.3VOL 777.3K

RES: $192.7SUP: $131.6SMA50: $144.6SMA200: $123.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DUOL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DUOL Butterfly Map → + Track DUOL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

7.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +38.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DUOL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DUOL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DUOL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DUOL)

Technology Rank #45 of 715 ⚔️ YOU vs DUOL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (DUOL vs. YOU, BOX, OCTV, KVYO)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) ranks #45 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #190 by equity capitalization ($6.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DUOL leads on earnings valuation at 15.4x trailing P/E, while YOU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BOX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with DUOL at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
DUOL ACTIVE Duolingo Inc.	B	75/100	15.4x	72.2%	18.4%	+2.80%	$6.16B	Benchmark Subject
YOU Clear Secure Inc.	C+	68/100	37.2x	—	26.6%	+4.26%	$6.22B	/you-vs-duol →
BOX Box Inc.	B+	76/100	51.5x	79.2%	13.8%	-0.48%	$5.96B	/box-vs-duol →
OCTV Octave Intelligence plc (Class B)	C-	61/100	—	—	—	-2.53%	$5.83B	/octv-vs-duol →
KVYO Klaviyo Inc. (Series A)	C-	61/100	—	74.7%	-11.5%	+8.24%	$5.73B	/kvyo-vs-duol →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001562088 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.04B (+38.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $748.0M , and +95.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $414.1M, operating cash flow of $387.8M, and free cash flow of $369.7M (+35.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, DUOL closed FY2025 with $1.99B in total assets against $290.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.42, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.04B	$414.1M	$387.8M	$369.7M	$1.99B	$290.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$748.0M	$88.3M	$285.5M	$273.4M	$1.30B	$214.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$531.1M	$16.1M	$153.6M	$129.7M	$3.51B	$821.3M

3. DUOL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DUOL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does DUOL compare to YOU and BOX in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DUOL?

Where is DUOL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DUOL last traded at $135.27 (+2.80% on volume of 1,122,515 shares), positioning the stock -6.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($144.55) and +9.40% above its 200-day simple moving average ($123.65). Across its 52-week range of $87.89 to $279.98, DUOL sits at the 24.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($123.10 to $147.44).

Direct Sub-Reports: DUOL RQD Cockpit DUOL 12M Forecast DUOL Earnings & Move DUOL Dividends & DRIP DUOL Insiders & 13F DUOL Whale Options DUOL Profit Sankey DUOL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

DUOL — Duolingo Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 75/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $135.27 (+2.80% 1D, market capitalization $6.16B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.4%, gross margin of 72.2%, operating margin of 13.1%, and free cash flow yield of 5.79%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (16/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.30x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 7.42, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Duolingo Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating within the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) reported $1.04B in annual revenue (up from $748.0M in FY2024, +38.7% YoY) and $414.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($531.1M revenue, $16.1M net income) through FY2025, DUOL scaled operating cash flow to $387.8M and free cash flow to $369.7M, backed by $1.99B in total assets against $290.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 75/100): Strong cash generator (72.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $87.89 – $279.98 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 15.4x trailing P/E and 37.2x EV/EBITDA against 13.1% operating margins and a 1.30x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply chain: NONE (). The butterfly links list is empty and no proprietary signals are provided. Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations: — beyond the sector and industry classification. Second-order bottlenecks: — The practical watch item for an investor is the growth-deceleration commentary and the pending class action noted in the news feed, which are the only second-order risk signals in the provided material.

Key Question #1: Can DUOL sustain or expand its 13.1% operating margin and 18.4% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.04B and free cash flow of $369.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $290.3M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is DUOL's 12.9x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.30x)?

DUOL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to DUOL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Stocktwits • 1d ago

Duolingo Stock Heads For Worst Day In Months As CEO Flags Slower Growth — Retail Calls Selloff ‘Stupid’

Stocktwits report covering Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Duolingo Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy DUOL?

StockInvest.us report covering Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Morningstar • 1d ago

DUOL Stockholder Notice: Shareholder Rights Law Firm Robbins LLP Reminds Investors of the Securities Class Action Lawsuit Filed Against Duolingo, Inc.

Morningstar report covering Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Duolingo (Nasdaq:DUOL) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Moomoo • 1d ago

Duolingo(DUOL.US) 10% Shareholder Sells US$16.69 Million in Common Stock

Moomoo report covering Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

Kaplan Fox Reminds Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL) Investors With Significant Losses to Seek a Leadership Role Before Deadline on December 7, 2026

The Globe and Mail report covering Duolingo Inc. (DUOL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DUOL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $135.27?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DUOL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $171.07 (+30.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Strong balance-sheet forensics and cash generation, with an Altman Z-Score of 7.42 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, support a 77 RQD ratin

Here is why I am bullish on DUOL here at $131.59: Strong balance-sheet forensics and cash generation, with an Altman Z-Score of 7.42 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, support a 77 RQD rating.. Compare DUOL's 13.1% operating margin and 18.4% ROIC against the rest of Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $125.01 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 15.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. If gross margin (72.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $107.90 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $131.59

The CEO flagged slower growth and a securities class action has been filed, while EV/EBITDA of 37.2 sits far above a trailing P/E of 15

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short DUOL above $131.59. The CEO flagged slower growth and a securities class action has been filed, while EV/EBITDA of 37.2 sits far above a trailing P/E of 15.4.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20) and FCF yield (5.79%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $268.97.