Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$90.55 +0.12% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $90.40

Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $20.89B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EXE Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EXE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Expand Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: EXE) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $90.55 (+0.12% 1D, market cap $20.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EXE ranks #66 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EXE compare to PR and OVV in the Energy sector?
β–Ό

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EXE carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.5x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.42B) and OVV (Ovintiv Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 5.7%, cap $20.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EXE?
β–Ό

Per EXE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000895126), Expand Energy Corporation generated $12.12B in revenue (+186.3% YoY), $1.82B in net income, and $1.84B in free cash flow against $28.29B in total assets and $5.01B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $90.40 (-0.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 15.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 55.6% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C Β· Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (8)SEC (14)Macro (13)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
$133 Bull$93 Base$73 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE EXE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EXE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY EXE SCORES 65/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.25 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 9/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
73
Grade B$92.37+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$92.67+2.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$94.62-4.3% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$90.55+1.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B (73) β†’ C (65)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the EXE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, EXE faces multiple-compression risk if 11.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($91.72) or 200D SMA ($96.69) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($93.40) toward Bear Floor ($72.85).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EXEβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œEXE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How EXE Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$1.84B (15.2% FCF Margin)
Revenue$12.12BGross Profit $6.30B (52%)Cost of Sales $5.82BOp Profit $2.47B (20.4%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $3.83BNet Profit$1.82B (15%)Tax/Other $652.0M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $8.72B
FY24
Rev $4.24B
FY25
Rev $12.12B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$12.12B52%20.4%$1.82B$1.84B8.5%
FY 2024$4.24B52%-19%-$714.0M$8.0M-2.8%
FY 2023$8.72B52%36%$2.42B$1.99B35.8%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EXE)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of EXE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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EXE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.14%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $91.57H $91.57L $90.44C $90.55VOL 2.84M
RES: $99.68SUP: $82.47SMA50: $91.72SMA200: $96.69
$106.6$100.3$93.93$87.61$81.29RES $99.68SUP $82.47$90.552026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EXE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
1.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EXE today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EXE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EXE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EXE)

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EXE vs. PR, OVV, TPL, APA)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) ranks #66 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #44 by equity capitalization ($20.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EXE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while APA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and β€” gross margin. APA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 83/100 (A-) compared with EXE at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EXE ACTIVE
Expand Energy Corporation
C 65/100 11.5x β€” 8.5% +0.12% $20.89B Benchmark Subject
PR
Permian Resources Corporation
B 73/100 β€” β€” 8.5% +1.76% $21.42B /pr-vs-exe β†’
OVV
Ovintiv Inc.
B 75/100 16.3x β€” 5.7% +1.47% $20.23B /ovv-vs-exe β†’
TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
C 65/100 47.0x β€” 25.9% +1.13% $22.62B /tpl-vs-exe β†’
APA
APA Corporation
A- 83/100 12.6x β€” 26.6% +2.54% $18.05B /apa-vs-exe β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000895126

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) reported GAAP revenue of $12.12B (+186.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.24B , and +39.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.82B, operating cash flow of $4.58B, and free cash flow of $1.84B (+22887.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, EXE closed FY2025 with $28.29B in total assets against $5.01B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.25, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $12.12B $1.82B $4.58B $1.84B $28.29B $5.01B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.24B -$714.0M $1.56B $8.0M $27.89B $5.29B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $8.72B $2.42B $2.38B $1.99B $11.49B $2.69B

3. EXE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EXE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Expand Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: EXE) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $90.55 (+0.12% 1D, market cap $20.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EXE ranks #66 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EXE compare to PR and OVV in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EXE carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.5x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.42B) and OVV (Ovintiv Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 5.7%, cap $20.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EXE?

Per EXE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000895126), Expand Energy Corporation generated $12.12B in revenue (+186.3% YoY), $1.82B in net income, and $1.84B in free cash flow against $28.29B in total assets and $5.01B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EXE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EXE last traded at $90.55 (+0.12% on volume of 2,161,630 shares), positioning the stock -1.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($91.72) and -6.35% below its 200-day simple moving average ($96.69). Across its 52-week range of $83.25 to $126.62, EXE sits at the 16.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.3% ($85.75 to $95.35).

EXE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

How profitable is Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), EXE converted $12.1B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 20.4% operating margin, and $1.8B in free cash flow (15.2% FCF margin).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 65/100 (C) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

EXE β€” Expand Energy Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:35Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, EXE scores 65 out of 100, grading a C and carrying the verdict "Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 8.5%; FCF yield 8.8%), Whale 13F Flow at 8/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 17/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 13/20 (Beta 1.06; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20 (Altman Z 2.25; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.27).

The strongest pillar is insider conviction, which the rating treats as the main support for the score. The weakest is whale/13F flow, which indicates institutional positioning is the least supportive factor. Cash generation and macro fit sit in the middle, and the forensic balance sheet scores solidly on its metrics. For a prospective investor, the implication is a balanced profile: the price of 90.44 sits within a 52-week range of $83.25 – $126.62, and the forward P/E of 9.7 versus a trailing P/E of 11.5 suggests the market is pricing earnings growth, while the 3.66% dividend yield provides income. Valuation tradeoffs center on whether the 8.8% FCF yield and EV/EBITDA of 5.3 hold up against a stock that has declined from its 52-week high. The rating does not argue for either a strong buy or a sell.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
90.44$20.89B11.59.75.37.883.66%1.06$83.25 - $126.628.5%

Business

Per the profile, Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating in Oil & Gas Production, with a market capitalization of $20.9B. Not available in source data for products sold, customer base, or detailed revenue model. The source data reports operating margin of 20.4% and net margin of 15%, and gross margin of 0%.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$12124.0M$2471.0M$1819.0MN/A$1839.0M$616.0M$5009.0M
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)$4235.0M$-803.0M$-714.0MN/A$8.0M$317.0M$5291.0M
FY 2023 (filed 2023-12-31)$8721.0M$3142.0M$2419.0MN/A$1987.6MN/A$2688.3M

Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 shows a sharp recovery from FY 2024, with revenue rising to $12124.0M and net income returning to $1819.0M after a loss of $-714.0M. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 8.5% and the Altman Z is 2.25, with a Piotroski F of 9/9. Debt/Equity is listed at 0.27 in the rating. Per the SEC financials, debt declined from $5291.0M to $5009.0M between FY 2024 and FY 2025, while cash rose from $317.0M to $616.0M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, six items reference EXE. A Seeking Alpha piece titled "Expand Energy: LNG Demand Growth Takes Time" carries a GREEN light and is tagged CATALYST; the source describes LNG demand as a growth driver that takes time to materialize. A marketscreener.com earnings flash reports Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.46 per share against a FactSet estimate of $1.29, a positive surprise. A TradingView piece notes the stock declined 17% year-to-date, flagged as a yellow market-wire risk item. Additional yellow-light items include a Yahoo Finance forecast page, a Seeking Alpha target-raising note, and a Yahoo! Finance Canada market report. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply-chain status is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals recorded.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific insider and Congressional trades underlying the 17/20 insider conviction score?
  • What is the source of the 0% gross margin figure, and how does it reconcile with reported operating margin of 20.4%?
  • Why is FY 2025 EPS and FY 2024 and FY 2023 cash reported as N/A, and what would reported EPS be?
  • What is the composition of the 8/20 whale/13F flow score given no holders data is provided?
  • What is the basis for the LNG demand thesis cited in the news wire, and what timeline does the source indicate?

EXE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to EXE Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EXE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $90.55?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EXE 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EXE:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $97.68 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is EXE (C β€’ RQD 65/100) a Buy at $90.44?

Welcome to the EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 65/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Oil & Gas Production. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $75.07 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $90.44

Pump the brakes on EXE β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on EXE, but look at what you are paying: 11.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Expand Energy Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $113.05 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $90.44

EXE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on EXE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil & Gas Production and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $90.44 (52-wk range $83.25 - $126.62), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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