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Stock Ratings / Financials / LMND / earnings
SLDE (84) NMIH (73) AGO (54) SPNT (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.1% Move

$41.19 -4.07% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.81

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $3.32B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LMND Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LMND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Lemonade Inc. (NYSE: LMND) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $41.19 (-4.07% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, LMND ranks #1085 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LMND compare to SLDE and NMIH in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), LMND carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -31.1%. By comparison, SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.) holds a A- grade (84/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 39.9%, cap $3.25B) and NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LMND?
▼

Per LMND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001691421), Lemonade Inc. generated $737.9M in revenue (+40.2% YoY), -$166.0M in net income, and -$25.9M in free cash flow against $1.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.81 (-0.92%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510021
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (4)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target
$105 Bull$34 Base$27 Bear
📬 FREE LMND RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LMND)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LMND SCORES 21/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (38% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+4/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$44.71+1.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$45.40+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
24
Grade E$45.91-10.3% Next Q
Current
21
Grade E$41.19-11.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (29) → E (21)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LMND Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LMND currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($47.50) and Max Pain ($43.25) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $104.90.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LMND• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LMND Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 21%NO 79%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.1% Swing Band

±$3.75 Expected Swing
$37.44 (-9.1%)Spot $41.19$44.94 (+9.1%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

LMND Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 21/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 40.2%

Model Bullish Setup (21/100)Model Risk Weight (79/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$737.9M-$166.0M-$25.9M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$526.5M-$202.2M-$20.8M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$429.8M-$236.9M-$119.1M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LMND)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LMND's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LMND // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.18%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $45.91H $45.91L $41.19C $41.19VOL 1.39M
RES: $51.77SUP: $37.29SMA50: $47.50SMA200: $58.06
$84.03$72.42$60.81$49.20$37.59RES $51.77SUP $37.29$41.192026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LMND Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LMND Butterfly Map → + Track LMND →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +40.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LMND today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LMND. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LMND today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LMND)

Financials Rank #1085 of 1097 ⚔️ SLDE vs LMND Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (LMND vs. SLDE, NMIH, AGO, SPNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lemonade Inc. (LMND) ranks #1085 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #337 by equity capitalization ($3.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGO leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while SLDE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 39.9% ROIC and — gross margin. SLDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with LMND at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LMND ACTIVE
Lemonade Inc.
E 21/100 — — -31.1% -4.07% $3.32B Benchmark Subject
SLDE
Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.
A- 84/100 7.2x — 39.9% -0.72% $3.25B /slde-vs-lmnd →
NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc.
B 73/100 8.4x — 15.0% +1.76% $3.21B /nmih-vs-lmnd →
AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
D+ 54/100 6.2x — 8.9% +2.06% $3.10B /ago-vs-lmnd →
SPNT
SiriusPoint Ltd.
C 63/100 6.6x — 18.6% +0.50% $3.01B /spnt-vs-lmnd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001691421 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lemonade Inc. (LMND) reported GAAP revenue of $737.9M (+40.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $526.5M , and +71.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$166.0M, operating cash flow of -$16.5M, and free cash flow of -$25.9M (-24.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, LMND closed FY2025 with $1.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $737.9M -$166.0M -$16.5M -$25.9M $1.93B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $526.5M -$202.2M -$11.4M -$20.8M $1.85B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $429.8M -$236.9M -$119.1M -$119.1M — —

3. LMND Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LMND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Lemonade Inc. (NYSE: LMND) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $41.19 (-4.07% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, LMND ranks #1085 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LMND compare to SLDE and NMIH in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), LMND carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -31.1%. By comparison, SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.) holds a A- grade (84/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 39.9%, cap $3.25B) and NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LMND?

Per LMND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001691421), Lemonade Inc. generated $737.9M in revenue (+40.2% YoY), -$166.0M in net income, and -$25.9M in free cash flow against $1.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LMND trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LMND last traded at $41.19 (-4.07% on volume of 1,071,318 shares), positioning the stock -13.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($47.50) and -29.06% below its 200-day simple moving average ($58.06). Across its 52-week range of $42.53 to $99.90, LMND sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($37.44 to $44.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: LMND RQD Cockpit LMND 12M Forecast LMND Earnings & Move LMND Dividends & DRIP LMND Insiders & 13F LMND Whale Options LMND Profit Sankey LMND News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 21/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LMND — Lemonade Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 21/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $41.19 (-4.07% 1D, market capitalization $3.32B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -31.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -0.73%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector and Property-Casualty Insurers industry,. Market capitalization is $3.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Lemonade Inc. (LMND) reported $737.9M in annual revenue (up from $526.5M in FY2024, +40.2% YoY) and -$166.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($429.8M revenue, -$236.9M net income) through FY2025, LMND scaled operating cash flow to -$16.5M and free cash flow to -$25.9M, backed by $1.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 21/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.73% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $42.53 – $99.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks beyond the sector and industry classification of Financials and Property-Casualty Insurers. Investors should not infer such linkages from this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can LMND sustain or expand its — operating margin and -31.1% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $737.9M and free cash flow of -$25.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LMND's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LMND Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lemonade Inc. (LMND) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LMND Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LMND Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $41.19?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LMND 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LMND:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $56.68 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $429.8M in FY 2023 to $737.9M in FY 2025 while net losses narrowed from -$236.9M to -$166.0M.

Long LMND at $42.94 targeting $56.68. Revenue grew from $429.8M in FY 2023 to $737.9M in FY 2025 while net losses narrowed from -$236.9M to -$166.0M.. Institutional whale score is 4/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $42.53 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $42.94 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.64 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $42.94

ROIC of -31.1% and FCF yield of -0.73% indicate the business is not currently generating returns on capital.

Fading this rally in LMND at $42.94. ROIC of -31.1% and FCF yield of -0.73% indicate the business is not currently generating returns on capital.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $42.94 (52-wk range $42.53–$99.90), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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