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Stock Ratings / Financials / LMND / insiders
SLDE (84) NMIH (73) AGO (54) SPNT (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$41.19 -4.07% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.81

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $3.32B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LMND Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LMND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Lemonade Inc. (NYSE: LMND) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $41.19 (-4.07% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, LMND ranks #1085 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LMND compare to SLDE and NMIH in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), LMND carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -31.1%. By comparison, SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.) holds a A- grade (84/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 39.9%, cap $3.25B) and NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LMND?
β–Ό

Per LMND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001691421), Lemonade Inc. generated $737.9M in revenue (+40.2% YoY), -$166.0M in net income, and -$25.9M in free cash flow against $1.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.81 (-0.92%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510021
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (4)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target
$105 Bull$34 Base$27 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE LMND RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LMND)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY LMND SCORES 21/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (38% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+4/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$44.71+1.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$45.40+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
24
Grade E$45.91-10.3% Next Q
Current
21
Grade E$41.19-11.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (29) β†’ E (21)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LMND Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While LMND currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($47.50) and Max Pain ($43.25) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $104.90.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LMNDβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œLMND Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 21%NO 79%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

LMND Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (LMND)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on LMND. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LMND)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of LMND's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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LMND // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.18%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $45.91H $45.91L $41.19C $41.19VOL 1.39M
RES: $51.77SUP: $37.29SMA50: $47.50SMA200: $58.06
$84.03$72.42$60.81$49.20$37.59RES $51.77SUP $37.29$41.192026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LMND Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ LMND Butterfly Map β†’ + Track LMND β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +40.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LMND today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LMND. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LMND today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LMND)

Financials Rank #1085 of 1097 βš”οΈ SLDE vs LMND Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (LMND vs. SLDE, NMIH, AGO, SPNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lemonade Inc. (LMND) ranks #1085 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #337 by equity capitalization ($3.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGO leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while SLDE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 39.9% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SLDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with LMND at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LMND ACTIVE
Lemonade Inc.
E 21/100 β€” β€” -31.1% -4.07% $3.32B Benchmark Subject
SLDE
Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.
A- 84/100 7.2x β€” 39.9% -0.72% $3.25B /slde-vs-lmnd β†’
NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc.
B 73/100 8.4x β€” 15.0% +1.76% $3.21B /nmih-vs-lmnd β†’
AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
D+ 54/100 6.2x β€” 8.9% +2.06% $3.10B /ago-vs-lmnd β†’
SPNT
SiriusPoint Ltd.
C 63/100 6.6x β€” 18.6% +0.50% $3.01B /spnt-vs-lmnd β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001691421 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lemonade Inc. (LMND) reported GAAP revenue of $737.9M (+40.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $526.5M , and +71.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$166.0M, operating cash flow of -$16.5M, and free cash flow of -$25.9M (-24.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, LMND closed FY2025 with $1.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $737.9M -$166.0M -$16.5M -$25.9M $1.93B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $526.5M -$202.2M -$11.4M -$20.8M $1.85B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $429.8M -$236.9M -$119.1M -$119.1M β€” β€”

3. LMND Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LMND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Lemonade Inc. (NYSE: LMND) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $41.19 (-4.07% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, LMND ranks #1085 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LMND compare to SLDE and NMIH in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), LMND carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -31.1%. By comparison, SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.) holds a A- grade (84/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 39.9%, cap $3.25B) and NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LMND?

Per LMND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001691421), Lemonade Inc. generated $737.9M in revenue (+40.2% YoY), -$166.0M in net income, and -$25.9M in free cash flow against $1.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LMND trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LMND last traded at $41.19 (-4.07% on volume of 1,071,318 shares), positioning the stock -13.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($47.50) and -29.06% below its 200-day simple moving average ($58.06). Across its 52-week range of $42.53 to $99.90, LMND sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±9.1% ($37.44 to $44.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: LMND RQD Cockpit LMND 12M Forecast LMND Earnings & Move LMND Dividends & DRIP LMND Insiders & 13F LMND Whale Options LMND Profit Sankey LMND News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 21/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LMND β€” Lemonade Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 21/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $41.19 (-4.07% 1D, market capitalization $3.32B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -31.1%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of -0.73%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector and Property-Casualty Insurers industry,. Market capitalization is $3.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Lemonade Inc. (LMND) reported $737.9M in annual revenue (up from $526.5M in FY2024, +40.2% YoY) and -$166.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($429.8M revenue, -$236.9M net income) through FY2025, LMND scaled operating cash flow to -$16.5M and free cash flow to -$25.9M, backed by $1.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 21/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.73% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $42.53 – $99.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks beyond the sector and industry classification of Financials and Property-Casualty Insurers. Investors should not infer such linkages from this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can LMND sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -31.1% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $737.9M and free cash flow of -$25.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LMND's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LMND Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lemonade Inc. (LMND) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to LMND Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LMND Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $41.19?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LMND 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LMND:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Systematic Momentum Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $56.68 (+32.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $429.8M in FY 2023 to $737.9M in FY 2025 while net losses narrowed from -$236.9M to -$166.0M.

Long LMND at $42.94 targeting $56.68. Revenue grew from $429.8M in FY 2023 to $737.9M in FY 2025 while net losses narrowed from -$236.9M to -$166.0M.. Institutional whale score is 4/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $42.53 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $42.94 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.64 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $42.94

ROIC of -31.1% and FCF yield of -0.73% indicate the business is not currently generating returns on capital.

Fading this rally in LMND at $42.94. ROIC of -31.1% and FCF yield of -0.73% indicate the business is not currently generating returns on capital.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $42.94 (52-wk range $42.53–$99.90), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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