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Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$10.40 +0.87% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.40

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $195.2M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (NASDAQ: MPAA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $10.40 (+0.87% 1D, market cap $195.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MPAA ranks #426 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPAA compare to SRI and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), MPAA carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of 20.2%, and ROIC of 21.6%. By comparison, SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $162.0M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $250.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPAA?
β–Ό

Per MPAA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000918251), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. generated $789.8M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $12.0M in net income, and $15.5M in free cash flow against $991.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.40 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 51.8% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (5)SEC (12)Macro (10)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$19 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MPAA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPAA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MPAA SCORES 56/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.41 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
64
Grade C+$10.59-3.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$10.22-0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$10.14+2.6% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$10.40-0.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (64) β†’ D+ (56)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPAA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MPAA faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.74) or 200D SMA ($11.78) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.31) toward Bear Floor ($8.04).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPAAβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMPAA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPAA)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of MPAA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MPAA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.64%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $10.30H $10.40L $10.30C $10.40VOL 51.9K
RES: $10.91SUP: $9.76SMA50: $10.74SMA200: $11.78
$16.89$14.97$13.05$11.13$9.20RES $10.91SUP $9.76$10.402026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPAA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPAA today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPAA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPAA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPAA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #426 of 1009 βš”οΈ SRI vs MPAA Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MPAA vs. SRI, STRT, CAAS, CVGI)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) ranks #426 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #690 by equity capitalization ($195.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. MPAA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MPAA ACTIVE
Motorcar Parts of America Inc.
D+ 56/100 16.3x 20.2% 21.6% +0.87% $195.2M Benchmark Subject
SRI
Stoneridge Inc.
D- 40/100 β€” 19.9% -24.1% +1.59% $162.0M /sri-vs-mpaa β†’
STRT
STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION
D+ 54/100 12.5x 16.5% 15.2% +1.31% $250.0M /strt-vs-mpaa β†’
CAAS
China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share
D 49/100 β€” 19.0% 16.3% -0.93% $129.7M /caas-vs-mpaa β†’
CVGI
Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.
D- 41/100 β€” 10.5% -0.2% +0.32% $128.4M /cvgi-vs-mpaa β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2026-03-31 β€’ CIK 0000918251 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) reported GAAP revenue of $789.8M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $757.4M , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.0M, operating cash flow of $19.2M, and free cash flow of $15.5M (-62.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPAA closed FY2025 with $991.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.41, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-03-31 $789.8M $12.0M $19.2M $15.5M $991.3M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2025-03-31 $757.4M -$19.0M $45.5M $40.9M $949.5M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2024-03-31 $717.7M -$49.0M $39.2M $39.2M β€” β€”

3. MPAA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (NASDAQ: MPAA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $10.40 (+0.87% 1D, market cap $195.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MPAA ranks #426 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MPAA compare to SRI and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), MPAA carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of 20.2%, and ROIC of 21.6%. By comparison, SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $162.0M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $250.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPAA?

Per MPAA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000918251), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. generated $789.8M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $12.0M in net income, and $15.5M in free cash flow against $991.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MPAA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPAA last traded at $10.40 (+0.87% on volume of 85,498 shares), positioning the stock -3.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.74) and -11.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.78). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $18.12, MPAA sits at the 12.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.2% ($9.65 to $11.15).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 56/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MPAA β€” Motorcar Parts of America Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-03-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $10.40 (+0.87% 1D, market capitalization $195.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 21.6%, gross margin of 20.2%, operating margin of 8.3%, and free cash flow yield of 7.93%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.41, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto Parts:O.E.M. Industry,. The profile describes the company as operating in this industry with a market capitalization of $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-31), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) reported $789.8M in annual revenue (up from $757.4M in FY2024, +4.3% YoY) and $12.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($717.7M revenue, -$49.0M net income) through FY2025, MPAA scaled operating cash flow to $19.2M and free cash flow to $15.5M, backed by $991.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.93% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.29 – $18.12 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.3x trailing P/E and 2.6x EV/EBITDA against 8.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations beyond the stated Consumer Discretionary and Auto Parts:O.E.M.

  • Key Question #1: Can MPAA sustain or expand its 8.3% operating margin and 21.6% ROIC against Auto Parts:O.E.M. Peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $789.8M and free cash flow of $15.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MPAA's 15.2x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MPAA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MPAA Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MPAA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $10.40?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MPAA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MPAA:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.99 (+26.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider-conviction pillar at 18 of 20 and a 21.6% ROIC with a 7.93% FCF yield signal strong cash generation and insider support against

Long MPAA at $10.31 targeting $12.99. Insider-conviction pillar at 18 of 20 and a 21.6% ROIC with a 7.93% FCF yield signal strong cash generation and insider support against a 16.3x trailing P/E.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $9.29 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on 16.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Auto Parts:O.E.M.. If gross margin (20.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.76 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $10.31

A 1.5% net margin, Altman Z-Score of 1.41, and an institutional-flow pillar of only 5 of 20 leave thin earnings and weak whale accumula

Fading this rally in MPAA at $10.31. A 1.5% net margin, Altman Z-Score of 1.41, and an institutional-flow pillar of only 5 of 20 leave thin earnings and weak whale accumulation behind the cash-yield story.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $10.31 (52-wk range $9.29–$18.12), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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