Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$9.51 -1.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.47

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $4.36B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OTF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $9.51 (-1.14% 1D, market cap $4.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, OTF ranks #370 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OTF compare to GEF and OGC in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), OTF carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, GEF (Greif Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $3.79B) and OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEF leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while BELFB leads on capital efficiency (15.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTF?
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Per OTF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001747777), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. generated $6.18B in revenue (+118.9% YoY), $720.4M in net income, and -$916.0M in free cash flow against $14.72B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.47 (-0.40%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (6)SEC (10)Macro (5)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.3% Base Target
$16 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE OTF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OTF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OTF SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.3) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
27
Grade E$9.14-2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$8.90+3.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$9.24+2.9% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$9.51-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OTF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OTF currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.09) and Max Pain ($9.99) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OTF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OTF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
49.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE12% OF RANGE
L: $9$9.51H: $15
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on OTF

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

9.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -20.78% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (30)

13/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like OTF
  • ✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OTF)

  • ✓Walkthrough of OTF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OTF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.02%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $9.62H $9.62L $9.51C $9.51VOL 3.15M
RES: $11.74SUP: $8.61SMA50: $10.09SMA200: $11.09
$13.90$12.50$11.11$9.72$8.33RES $11.74SUP $8.61$9.512026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OTF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OTF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OTF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OTF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OTF)

Industrials Rank #370 of 485 ⚔️ GEF vs OTF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (OTF vs. GEF, OGC, BELFB, ARIS)

Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) ranks #370 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #157 by equity capitalization ($4.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GEF leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while BELFB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.5% ROIC and 39.1% gross margin. BELFB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with OTF at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OTF ACTIVE
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.
D- 35/100 6.1x — 9.0% -1.14% $4.36B Benchmark Subject
GEF
Greif Inc. (Class A)
D+ 53/100 4.5x 22.2% 3.9% -0.24% $3.79B /gef-vs-otf →
OGC
OceanaGold Corporation
D 45/100 — — — -4.59% $5.41B /ogc-vs-otf →
BELFB
Bel Fuse Inc.
C- 61/100 45.9x 39.1% 15.5% +0.18% $3.41B /belfb-vs-otf →
ARIS
Aris Mining Corporation
D 46/100 — — — -9.13% $2.98B /aris-vs-otf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001747777

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) reported GAAP revenue of $6.18B (+118.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.82B ) , GAAP net income of $720.4M, operating cash flow of -$916.0M, and free cash flow of -$916.0M (-1527.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, OTF closed FY2025 with $14.72B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.18B $720.4M -$916.0M -$916.0M $14.72B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.82B $319.2M $64.2M $64.2M $6.72B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $369.1M $708.4M $708.4M — —

3. OTF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OTF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $9.51 (-1.14% 1D, market cap $4.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, OTF ranks #370 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OTF compare to GEF and OGC in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), OTF carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, GEF (Greif Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $3.79B) and OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEF leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while BELFB leads on capital efficiency (15.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTF?

Per OTF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001747777), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. generated $6.18B in revenue (+118.9% YoY), $720.4M in net income, and -$916.0M in free cash flow against $14.72B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OTF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OTF last traded at $9.51 (-1.14% on volume of 3,153,386 shares), positioning the stock -5.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.09) and -14.25% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.09). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $15.00, OTF sits at the 12.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($8.98 to $10.04).

OTF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell OTF stock right now?

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 35/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is OTF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

OTF's 12-month base price target is $8.53 (range $6.65 to $15.75), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

OTF — Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:21:41Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, OTF carries an RQD Score of 35 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, and a verdict label of "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow."

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 9% and FCF yield is -20.78%. A negative FCF yield means reported free cash flow is not covering the company's market value on a cash basis, which weakens the cash-generation case even though the ROIC figure is positive.
  • Whale 13F Flow (6 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning scored 6 of 20. Institutional support is weaker than the sell-side might imply, and the holder section provides no supporting detail.
  • Insider Conviction (7 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scored 7 of 20. Insider signals are not a meaningful source of conviction in this rating.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. The stock moves with the market and carries sector-specific exposure, which limits its defensive character.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (10 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 2 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The Piotroski score is weak, indicating limited improvement in fundamentals, though the Altman and leverage readings are the strongest components of the rating.

Investor implications: the valuation is low on earnings (P/E TTM of 6.1), and the 8.93% dividend yield is a visible upside driver for income-oriented analysis. The valuation tradeoff is that low multiples coexist with a negative FCF yield and a weak Piotroski score, so the low P/E should be read alongside cash-generation quality rather than in isolation. The 2nd-order risk is that dividend sustainability depends on cash flow, which the rating flags as vulnerable.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$720.4MN/A$-916.0MN/AN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$319.2MN/A$64.2MN/AN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$369.1MN/A$708.4MN/AN/A

Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and ROIC is 9%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2 of 9. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.5. Net income is reported at $720.4M for FY 2025 while FCF is $-916.0M, a divergence the source data does not explain.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Market wire (YELLOW): Yahoo! Finance Canada seasonal returns coverage of OTF; no specific catalyst detail in the source data.
  • Market wire (YELLOW): MarketBeat report that OTF set a new 1-year low, with a "time to sell?" framing.
  • Market wire (YELLOW): ChartMill coverage referencing NYSE:OWL, the parent-related ticker, with no specific catalyst detail.
  • Risk watch (RED): Seeking Alpha piece titled "5 BDCs Priced For Loan Losses Worse Than 2008, Heading Into Q3," flagged red for risk.
  • Catalyst (GREEN): TradingView piece on financial stocks with strong revenue growth and attractive valuations, which references the sector rather than OTF-specific results.
  • Market wire (YELLOW): GlobeNewswire securities class action notice from Girard Sharp Law Firm.

Per the butterfly supply-chain graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What does the company sell, and what drives its reported net income given $0.0M revenue and operating income in every period?
  • What explains the divergence between FY 2025 net income of $720.4M and FCF of $-916.0M?
  • What is the scope and status of the securities class action referenced in the news wire?
  • What are the cash and debt balances, since both are N/A in the financial data?
  • What is the basis for the loan-loss concern raised in the risk-watch article?

OTF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OTF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OTF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.51?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OTF 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OTF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.47 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is OTF (D- • RQD 35/100) a Buy at $9.62?

Welcome to the OTF (Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 35/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Diversified Equities. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.79 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $9.62

Pump the brakes on OTF — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on OTF, but look at what you are paying: 6.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.74 (+22.0%)
Spot @ $9.62

OTF cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on OTF, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Equities and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.62 (52-wk range $8.76 - $15.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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