Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$9.75 +2.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.78

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $4.36B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OTF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $9.75 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $4.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, OTF ranks #370 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OTF compare to GEF and OGC in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), OTF carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, GEF (Greif Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $3.79B) and OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEF leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while BELFB leads on capital efficiency (15.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTF?
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Per OTF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001747777), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. generated $6.18B in revenue (+118.9% YoY), $720.4M in net income, and -$916.0M in free cash flow against $14.72B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.78 (+0.26%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (6)SEC (10)Macro (5)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
$16 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE OTF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OTF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OTF SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.3) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
27
Grade E$9.14-2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$8.90+3.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$9.24+5.5% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$9.75-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OTF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OTF currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.09) and Max Pain ($10.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OTF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OTF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How OTF Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)
Revenue$6.18BGross Profit $3.21B (52%)Cost of Sales $2.97BOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $3.21BNet Profit$720.4M (11.7%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $2.69B
FY24
Rev $2.82B
FY25
Rev $6.18B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$6.18B52%0%$720.4M-$916.0M9%
FY 2024$2.82B52%0%$319.2M$64.2M9%
FY 2023$2.69B39.5%0%$369.1M$708.4M9%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OTF)

  • ✓Walkthrough of OTF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OTF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.92%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $9.62H $9.75L $9.51C $9.75VOL 3.15M
RES: $11.74SUP: $8.61SMA50: $10.09SMA200: $11.09
$13.90$12.50$11.11$9.72$8.33RES $11.74SUP $8.61$9.752026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OTF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OTF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OTF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OTF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OTF)

Industrials Rank #370 of 485 ⚔️ GEF vs OTF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (OTF vs. GEF, OGC, BELFB, ARIS)

Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) ranks #370 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #157 by equity capitalization ($4.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GEF leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while BELFB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.5% ROIC and 39.1% gross margin. BELFB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with OTF at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OTF ACTIVE
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.
D- 35/100 6.1x — 9.0% +2.52% $4.36B Benchmark Subject
GEF
Greif Inc. (Class A)
D+ 53/100 4.5x 22.2% 3.9% +1.01% $3.79B /gef-vs-otf →
OGC
OceanaGold Corporation
D 45/100 — — — +0.95% $5.41B /ogc-vs-otf →
BELFB
Bel Fuse Inc.
C- 61/100 45.9x 39.1% 15.5% -0.47% $3.41B /belfb-vs-otf →
ARIS
Aris Mining Corporation
D 46/100 — — — +1.73% $2.98B /aris-vs-otf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001747777

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) reported GAAP revenue of $6.18B (+118.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.82B , and +129.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $720.4M, operating cash flow of -$916.0M, and free cash flow of -$916.0M (-1527.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, OTF closed FY2025 with $14.72B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.18B $720.4M -$916.0M -$916.0M $14.72B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.82B $319.2M $64.2M $64.2M $6.72B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.69B $369.1M $708.4M $708.4M — —

3. OTF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OTF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $9.75 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $4.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, OTF ranks #370 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OTF compare to GEF and OGC in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), OTF carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, GEF (Greif Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $3.79B) and OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEF leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while BELFB leads on capital efficiency (15.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTF?

Per OTF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001747777), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. generated $6.18B in revenue (+118.9% YoY), $720.4M in net income, and -$916.0M in free cash flow against $14.72B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OTF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OTF last traded at $9.75 (+2.52% on volume of 4,045,075 shares), positioning the stock -3.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.09) and -12.08% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.09). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $15.00, OTF sits at the 15.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($9.20 to $10.30).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

OTF — Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:21:41Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

OTF carries an RQD Score of 35 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, and a verdict label of "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow."

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7 / 20): ROIC is 9% and FCF yield is -20.78%. A negative FCF yield means reported free cash flow is not covering the company's market value on a cash basis, which weakens the cash-generation case even though the ROIC figure is positive.
  • Whale 13F Flow (6 / 20): institutional accumulation and options positioning scored 6 of 20. Institutional support is weaker than the sell-side might imply, and the holder section provides no supporting detail.
  • Insider Conviction (7 / 20): SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scored 7 of 20. Insider signals are not a meaningful source of conviction in this rating.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5 / 20): beta is 1.0 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. The stock moves with the market and carries sector-specific exposure, which limits its defensive character.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (10 / 20): Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 2 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The Piotroski score is weak, indicating limited improvement in fundamentals, though the Altman and leverage readings are the strongest components of the rating.

Investor implications: the valuation is low on earnings (P/E TTM of 6.1), and the 8.93% dividend yield is a visible upside driver for income-oriented analysis. The valuation tradeoff is that low multiples coexist with a negative FCF yield and a weak Piotroski score, so the low P/E should be read alongside cash-generation quality rather than in isolation. The 2nd-order risk is that dividend sustainability depends on cash flow, which the rating flags as vulnerable.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Diversified Equities industry (Industrials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $4.36B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9% (free cash flow yield of -20.78%). Within the Diversified Equities peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and ROIC is 9%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2 of 9. Debt/Equity is 0.5. Net income is reported at $720.4M for FY 2025 while FCF is -$916.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Trades at a P/E TTM of 6.1 with an 8.93% dividend yield and an ROIC of 9%. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 (ROIC 9.0%, FCF yield -20.78%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $8.76 – $15.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Carries a -20.78% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9 alongside a 35 RQD Score. Investors must weigh 6.1x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Diversified Equities (Industrials), OTF carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: What does the company sell, and what drives its reported net income given — revenue and operating income in every period?
  • Key Question #2: What explains the divergence between FY 2025 net income of $720.4M and FCF of -$916.0M?
  • Key Question #3: What is the scope and status of the securities class action referenced in the news wire?

OTF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OTF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OTF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.75?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OTF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OTF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.51 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at a P/E TTM of 6.1 with an 8.93% dividend yield and an ROIC of 9%.

Trades at a P/E TTM of 6.1 with an 8.93% dividend yield and an ROIC of 9%.. When you look under the hood at OTF, Fundamental Cash Engine is 7/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 9.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (6/20) has been quietly accumulating below $15.00. My 12M target is $11.51.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 35/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $9.51 and keeping dry powder in case we test $8.84.

ME MeanReversion_88 Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.51 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $9.51

Carries a -20.78% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9 alongside a 35 RQD Score.

Carries a -20.78% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9 alongside a 35 RQD Score.. Look at the math on OTF: paying 6.1x trailing P/E for 9.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Diversified Equities demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $8.37 before getting long.

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