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Stock Ratings / Health Care / TARS / forecast
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Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$73.32 -2.04% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.91

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.61B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TARS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TARS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $73.32 (-2.04% 1D, market cap $3.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TARS ranks #258 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TARS compare to IOVA and RLAY in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TARS carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.1%. By comparison, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B) and RLAY (Relay Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TARS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TARS?
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Per TARS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819790), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $451.4M in revenue (+146.7% YoY), -$66.0M in net income, and -$22.3M in free cash flow against $562.2M in total assets and $72.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.91 (-0.56%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk C
Cash (10)Whales (12)SEC (14)Macro (11)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$96 Bull$71 Base$55 Bear
📬 FREE TARS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TARS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TARS SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 10.19 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.3% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$72.29-2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$70.50+2.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$72.05+1.8% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$73.32-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TARS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TARS currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($75.27) and Max Pain ($76.99) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $96.11.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TARS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TARS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TARS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $73.32: 136.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $55.13
$7,519
$-2,481 (-24.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $70.68
$9,640
$-360 (-3.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $96.11
$13,108
+$3,108 (+31.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$7474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$9069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$6358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TARS)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TARS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TARS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.73%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $74.85H $74.85L $73.32C $73.32VOL 428.7K
RES: $81.70SUP: $69.20SMA50: $75.27SMA200: $67.81
$94.16$83.25$72.33$61.42$50.50RES $81.70SUP $69.20$73.322026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TARS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TARS Butterfly Map → + Track TARS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +146.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TARS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TARS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TARS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TARS)

Health Care Rank #258 of 1015 ⚔️ IOVA vs TARS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TARS vs. IOVA, RLAY, ADPT, DNLI)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) ranks #258 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #188 by equity capitalization ($3.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TARS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ADPT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.5% ROIC and 74.2% gross margin. TARS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TARS ACTIVE
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 50/100 — — -24.1% -2.04% $3.61B Benchmark Subject
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.
D 47/100 — 34.3% -35.0% -5.42% $3.63B /iova-vs-tars →
RLAY
Relay Therapeutics Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -5.83% $3.79B /rlay-vs-tars →
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
D 48/100 — 74.2% -12.5% -5.93% $4.00B /adpt-vs-tars →
DNLI
Denali Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -0.42% $3.01B /dnli-vs-tars →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819790 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) reported GAAP revenue of $451.4M (+146.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $183.0M , and +2487.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$66.0M, operating cash flow of -$12.5M, and free cash flow of -$22.3M (+73.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TARS closed FY2025 with $562.2M in total assets against $72.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.19, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $451.4M -$66.0M -$12.5M -$22.3M $562.2M $72.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $183.0M -$116.0M -$83.0M -$84.6M $377.0M $71.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $17.4M -$136.0M -$117.5M -$117.5M — —

3. TARS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TARS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $73.32 (-2.04% 1D, market cap $3.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TARS ranks #258 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TARS compare to IOVA and RLAY in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TARS carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.1%. By comparison, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B) and RLAY (Relay Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TARS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TARS?

Per TARS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819790), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $451.4M in revenue (+146.7% YoY), -$66.0M in net income, and -$22.3M in free cash flow against $562.2M in total assets and $72.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TARS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TARS last traded at $73.32 (-2.04% on volume of 428,719 shares), positioning the stock -2.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($75.27) and +8.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($67.81). Across its 52-week range of $53.89 to $91.53, TARS sits at the 51.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($66.50 to $80.14).

Direct Sub-Reports: TARS RQD Cockpit TARS 12M Forecast TARS Earnings & Move TARS Dividends & DRIP TARS Insiders & 13F TARS Whale Options TARS Profit Sankey TARS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TARS — Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $73.32 (-2.04% 1D, market capitalization $3.61B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -24.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -15.7%, and free cash flow yield of -0.61%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 10.19, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.21x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. Market capitalization is $3.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) reported $451.4M in annual revenue (up from $183.0M in FY2024, +146.7% YoY) and -$66.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($17.4M revenue, -$136.0M net income) through FY2025, TARS scaled operating cash flow to -$12.5M and free cash flow to -$22.3M, backed by $562.2M in total assets against $72.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.61% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $53.89 – $91.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -15.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should note that the absence of graph data does not indicate the absence of dependencies; it indicates that none are recorded in this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can TARS sustain or expand its -15.7% operating margin and -24.1% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $451.4M and free cash flow of -$22.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $72.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TARS's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TARS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TARS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TARS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $73.32?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TARS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TARS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $89.07 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue scaled from $17.4M in FY 2023 to $451.4M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet shows FY 2025 cash of $183.6M against $72.4M of deb

Don't sleep on TARS's setup in Health Care. Revenue scaled from $17.4M in FY 2023 to $451.4M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet shows FY 2025 cash of $183.6M against $72.4M of debt and an Altman Z-Score of 10.19.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (50/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TARS's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $61.38 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $74.85

Operating margin of -15.7%, ROIC of -24.1%, and an insider conviction pillar of 3/20 indicate that the business is not yet generating r

Fading this rally in TARS at $74.85. Operating margin of -15.7%, ROIC of -24.1%, and an insider conviction pillar of 3/20 indicate that the business is not yet generating returns on capital or conviction from insiders.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $74.85 (52-wk range $53.89–$91.53), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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