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Why TARS Stock dropped -2.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$73.32 -2.04% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.91

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.61B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TARS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $73.32 (-2.04% 1D, market cap $3.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TARS ranks #258 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TARS compare to IOVA and RLAY in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TARS carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.1%. By comparison, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B) and RLAY (Relay Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TARS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TARS?
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Per TARS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819790), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $451.4M in revenue (+146.7% YoY), -$66.0M in net income, and -$22.3M in free cash flow against $562.2M in total assets and $72.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.91 (-0.56%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk C
Cash (10)Whales (12)SEC (14)Macro (11)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$96 Bull$71 Base$55 Bear
📬 FREE TARS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TARS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TARS SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 10.19 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.3% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$72.29-2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$70.50+2.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$72.05+1.8% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$73.32-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TARS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TARS currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($75.27) and Max Pain ($76.99) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $96.11.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TARS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TARS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TARS Stock dropped -2.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) dropped -2.04% to $73.32, trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($53.89 – $91.53). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-24% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($53.89 – $91.53) with RSI-14 at 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.3% around $73.32 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TARS Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 3d ago
My 'Eye' Is On Tarsus Pharmaceuticals

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals may be undervalued after its pullback, with Xdemvy growth, pipeline upside, and key catalysts ahead. Read the full analysis here on TARS stock.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TARS)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TARS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TARS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.73%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $74.85H $74.85L $73.32C $73.32VOL 428.7K
RES: $81.70SUP: $69.20SMA50: $75.27SMA200: $67.81
$94.16$83.25$72.33$61.42$50.50RES $81.70SUP $69.20$73.322026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TARS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +146.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TARS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TARS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TARS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TARS)

Health Care Rank #258 of 1015 ⚔️ IOVA vs TARS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TARS vs. IOVA, RLAY, ADPT, DNLI)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) ranks #258 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #188 by equity capitalization ($3.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TARS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ADPT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.5% ROIC and 74.2% gross margin. TARS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TARS ACTIVE
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 50/100 — — -24.1% -2.04% $3.61B Benchmark Subject
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.
D 47/100 — 34.3% -35.0% -5.42% $3.63B /iova-vs-tars →
RLAY
Relay Therapeutics Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -5.83% $3.79B /rlay-vs-tars →
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
D 48/100 — 74.2% -12.5% -5.93% $4.00B /adpt-vs-tars →
DNLI
Denali Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -0.42% $3.01B /dnli-vs-tars →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819790 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) reported GAAP revenue of $451.4M (+146.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $183.0M , and +2487.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$66.0M, operating cash flow of -$12.5M, and free cash flow of -$22.3M (+73.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TARS closed FY2025 with $562.2M in total assets against $72.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.19, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $451.4M -$66.0M -$12.5M -$22.3M $562.2M $72.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $183.0M -$116.0M -$83.0M -$84.6M $377.0M $71.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $17.4M -$136.0M -$117.5M -$117.5M — —

3. TARS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TARS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: TARS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $73.32 (-2.04% 1D, market cap $3.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TARS ranks #258 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TARS compare to IOVA and RLAY in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TARS carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.1%. By comparison, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.63B) and RLAY (Relay Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TARS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ADPT leads on capital efficiency (-12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TARS?

Per TARS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819790), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $451.4M in revenue (+146.7% YoY), -$66.0M in net income, and -$22.3M in free cash flow against $562.2M in total assets and $72.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TARS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TARS last traded at $73.32 (-2.04% on volume of 428,719 shares), positioning the stock -2.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($75.27) and +8.13% above its 200-day simple moving average ($67.81). Across its 52-week range of $53.89 to $91.53, TARS sits at the 51.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($66.50 to $80.14).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TARS — Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $73.32 (-2.04% 1D, market capitalization $3.61B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -24.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -15.7%, and free cash flow yield of -0.61%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 10.19, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.21x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. Market capitalization is $3.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) reported $451.4M in annual revenue (up from $183.0M in FY2024, +146.7% YoY) and -$66.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($17.4M revenue, -$136.0M net income) through FY2025, TARS scaled operating cash flow to -$12.5M and free cash flow to -$22.3M, backed by $562.2M in total assets against $72.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.61% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $53.89 – $91.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -15.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should note that the absence of graph data does not indicate the absence of dependencies; it indicates that none are recorded in this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can TARS sustain or expand its -15.7% operating margin and -24.1% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $451.4M and free cash flow of -$22.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $72.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TARS's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TARS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TARS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TARS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TARS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $73.32?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TARS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TARS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $89.07 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue scaled from $17.4M in FY 2023 to $451.4M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet shows FY 2025 cash of $183.6M against $72.4M of deb

Don't sleep on TARS's setup in Health Care. Revenue scaled from $17.4M in FY 2023 to $451.4M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet shows FY 2025 cash of $183.6M against $72.4M of debt and an Altman Z-Score of 10.19.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (50/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TARS's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $61.38 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $74.85

Operating margin of -15.7%, ROIC of -24.1%, and an insider conviction pillar of 3/20 indicate that the business is not yet generating r

Fading this rally in TARS at $74.85. Operating margin of -15.7%, ROIC of -24.1%, and an insider conviction pillar of 3/20 indicate that the business is not yet generating returns on capital or conviction from insiders.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $74.85 (52-wk range $53.89–$91.53), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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