ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account β†’
β–Ύ
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚑ My $100K Trading Account β†’ β˜… My Saved Watchlist β†’
🟒 My $100K Account β†’ Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record πŸ’° $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions πŸ›οΈ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / THG / options
KNSL (78) AXS (48) ORI (61) ESNT (77) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$248.40 +2.61% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $250.16

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 77/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ β€’ BUY Cap $8.32B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on THG Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is THG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (NYSE: THG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $248.40 (+2.61% 1D, market cap $8.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, THG ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does THG compare to KNSL and AXS in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), THG carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $8.23B) and AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 7.3x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $7.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AXS leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while KNSL leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for THG?
β–Ό

Per THG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000944695), Hanover Insurance Group Inc generated $6.59B in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $662.5M in net income, and $1.17B in free cash flow against $16.95B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $250.16 (+0.71%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 17.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 77/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 70.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B+
025507510077
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ Β· Rk B
Cash (14)Whales (17)SEC (15)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.6% Base Target
$318 Bull$270 Base$204 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE THG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for THG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±3.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (77/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY THG SCORES 77/100 (B+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±3.9% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (63.2) create a -6 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$226.17+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
72
Grade B$231.93+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
74
Grade B+$233.26+6.5% Next Q
Current
77
Grade B+$248.40+7.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B- (69) β†’ B+ (77)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the THG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 77/100 (B+) score, THG faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($227.09) or 200D SMA ($201.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($269.64) toward Bear Floor ($203.69).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $THGβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œTHG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 77%NO 23%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±3.9%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (THG)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for THG.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

πŸ† Enter Free $100K Paper Arena β†’
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating THG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on THG
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) β†’$100K Arena
THG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +35.53%β–² RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $235.1H $248.4L $235.1C $248.4VOL 431.3K
RES: $241.1SUP: $210.8SMA50: $227.1SMA200: $201.2
$253.5$232.5$211.6$190.7$169.7RES $241.1SUP $210.8$248.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

THG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ THG Butterfly Map β†’ + Track THG β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on THG today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for THG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for THG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (THG)

Financials Rank #19 of 1097 βš”οΈ KNSL vs THG Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (THG vs. KNSL, AXS, ORI, ESNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) ranks #19 by composite RQD confidence (77/100, grade B+) and #212 by equity capitalization ($8.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AXS leads on earnings valuation at 7.3x trailing P/E, while KNSL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.8% ROIC and β€” gross margin. KNSL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with THG at 77/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
THG ACTIVE
Hanover Insurance Group Inc
B+ 77/100 12.4x β€” 9.1% +2.61% $8.32B Benchmark Subject
KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group Inc.
B+ 78/100 16.2x β€” 13.8% +3.80% $8.23B /knsl-vs-thg β†’
AXS
Axis Capital Holdings Limited
D 48/100 7.3x β€” 5.6% +1.65% $7.52B /axs-vs-thg β†’
ORI
Old Republic International Corporation
C- 61/100 9.9x β€” 7.3% +1.06% $9.30B /ori-vs-thg β†’
ESNT
Essent Group Ltd.
B+ 77/100 8.8x β€” 11.9% +1.82% $6.02B /esnt-vs-thg β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000944695 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) reported GAAP revenue of $6.59B (+5.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.24B , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $662.5M, operating cash flow of $1.18B, and free cash flow of $1.17B (+47.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, THG closed FY2025 with $16.95B in total assets against $6.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.59B $662.5M $1.18B $1.17B $16.95B $6.02B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $6.24B $426.0M $806.4M $796.2M $15.27B $5.59B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $5.99B $35.3M $361.7M $92.0M $7.19B $1.68B

3. THG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is THG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Hanover Insurance Group Inc (NYSE: THG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $248.40 (+2.61% 1D, market cap $8.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, THG ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.

How does THG compare to KNSL and AXS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), THG carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, KNSL (Kinsale Capital Group Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 16.2x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $8.23B) and AXS (Axis Capital Holdings Limited) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 7.3x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $7.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AXS leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while KNSL leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for THG?

Per THG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000944695), Hanover Insurance Group Inc generated $6.59B in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $662.5M in net income, and $1.17B in free cash flow against $16.95B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is THG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

THG last traded at $248.40 (+2.61% on volume of 535,449 shares), positioning the stock +9.38% above its 50-day simple moving average ($227.09) and +23.47% above its 200-day simple moving average ($201.18). Across its 52-week range of $166.54 to $242.54, THG sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±3.9% ($238.71 to $258.09).

Direct Sub-Reports: THG RQD Cockpit THG 12M Forecast THG Earnings & Move THG Dividends & DRIP THG Insiders & 13F THG Whale Options THG Profit Sankey THG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 77/100 (B+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

THG β€” Hanover Insurance Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 77/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $248.40 (+2.61% 1D, market capitalization $8.32B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.1%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 14.1%, and free cash flow yield of 14.30%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.01x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Property-Casualty Insurers industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $8.32B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 14.1%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.1% (free cash flow yield of 14.3%). Within the Property-Casualty Insurers peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) reported $6.59B in annual revenue (up from $6.24B in FY2024, +5.7% YoY) and $662.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($5.99B revenue, $35.3M net income) through FY2025, THG scaled operating cash flow to $1.18B and free cash flow to $1.17B, backed by $16.95B in total assets against $6.02B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (B+ β€’ RQD 77/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $166.54 – $242.54 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.4x trailing P/E and 13.5x EV/EBITDA against 14.1% operating margins and a 1.01x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

(supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. Upstream and downstream dependencies and sector correlations are not provided.)

  • Key Question #1: Can THG sustain or expand its 14.1% operating margin and 9.1% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $6.59B and free cash flow of $1.17B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $6.02B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is THG's 11.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.01x)?

THG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to THG Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

THG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $248.40?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON THG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on THG:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $280.82 (+16.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Smart-money pillars (Whale 13F Flow and Insider Conviction, each 17/20) and a 14.3% FCF yield indicate strong institutional and cash-ge

Picked up a starter position in THG in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $242.09. Smart-money pillars (Whale 13F Flow and Insider Conviction, each 17/20) and a 14.3% FCF yield indicate strong institutional and cash-generation support.. Trading inside a $166.54–$242.54 52-week range with 14.3% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Property-Casualty Insurers multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 77/100 quality, though with 1.01 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $242.09 and keeping dry powder in case we test $225.14.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $203.36 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $242.09

A 13.5x EV/EBITDA multiple near the top of the 52-week range ($242.54 high) and a recent $237 price-target cut leave limited upside per

Careful chasing THG at $242.09. A 13.5x EV/EBITDA multiple near the top of the 52-week range ($242.54 high) and a recent $237 price-target cut leave limited upside per the news wire.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 14.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $203.36 on multiple compression.

LIVE TAPE