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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / XPO / earnings
EXPE (68) GATX (57) HAFN (65) GXO (48) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

XPO Inc. (XPO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.5% Move

$189.57 +3.59% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $190.43

XPO Inc. (XPO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $22.09B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on XPO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XPO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, XPO Inc. (NYSE: XPO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $189.57 (+3.59% 1D, market cap $22.09B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, XPO ranks #539 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XPO compare to EXPE and GATX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), XPO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 67.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, EXPE (Expedia Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 57.1%, cap $32.74B) and GATX (GATX Corporation) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 4.0%, cap $6.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GATX leads on earnings multiple (19.1x) while EXPE leads on capital efficiency (57.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XPO?
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Per XPO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001166003), XPO Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $316.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $8.19B in total assets and $3.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $190.44 (+0.46%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (14)Whales (13)SEC (16)Macro (3)CEO (4)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$244 Bull$183 Base$143 Bear
📬 FREE XPO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XPO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY XPO SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.69 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.4% FCF Margin ($110.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$185.10+1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$188.46-3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$181.69+4.3% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$189.57-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XPO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While XPO currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($183.22) and Max Pain ($199.05) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $243.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XPO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “XPO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.5% Swing Band

±$14.22 Expected Swing
$175.35 (-7.5%)Spot $189.57$203.79 (+7.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

XPO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 50/100

Trailing EPS: $2.70 • YoY Revenue Growth: 1.1%

Model Bullish Setup (50/100)Model Risk Weight (50/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$8.16B$316.0M$284.4M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$8.07B$387.0M$348.3M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$7.74B$189.0M$170.1M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XPO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of XPO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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XPO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.19%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $183.0H $189.6L $183.0C $189.6VOL 2.06M
RES: $191.5SUP: $153.3SMA50: $183.2SMA200: $197.3
$237.3$215.5$193.6$171.7$149.9RES $191.5SUP $153.3$189.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XPO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XPO Butterfly Map → + Track XPO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
44.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XPO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XPO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XPO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XPO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #539 of 1011 ⚔️ EXPE vs XPO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (XPO vs. EXPE, GATX, HAFN, GXO)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, XPO Inc. (XPO) ranks #539 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #93 by equity capitalization ($22.09B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GATX leads on earnings valuation at 19.1x trailing P/E, while EXPE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 57.1% ROIC and — gross margin. EXPE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with XPO at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
XPO ACTIVE
XPO Inc.
D 50/100 67.8x — 10.8% +3.59% $22.09B Benchmark Subject
EXPE
Expedia Group Inc.
C+ 68/100 24.9x — 57.1% +1.13% $32.74B /expe-vs-xpo →
GATX
GATX Corporation
D+ 57/100 19.1x — 4.0% +0.37% $6.39B /gatx-vs-xpo →
HAFN
Hafnia Limited
C 65/100 — — — -1.72% $5.82B /hafn-vs-xpo →
GXO
GXO Logistics Inc.
D 48/100 159.1x — 4.2% +0.68% $5.77B /gxo-vs-xpo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001166003

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), XPO Inc. (XPO) reported GAAP revenue of $8.16B (+1.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.07B , and +5.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $316.0M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, XPO closed FY2025 with $8.19B in total assets against $3.25B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.69, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.16B $316.0M — — $8.19B $3.25B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $8.07B $387.0M — — $7.71B $3.33B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $7.74B $189.0M — — $11.79B $2.76B

3. XPO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XPO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, XPO Inc. (NYSE: XPO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $189.57 (+3.59% 1D, market cap $22.09B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, XPO ranks #539 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XPO compare to EXPE and GATX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), XPO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 67.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, EXPE (Expedia Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 24.9x, ROIC 57.1%, cap $32.74B) and GATX (GATX Corporation) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 4.0%, cap $6.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GATX leads on earnings multiple (19.1x) while EXPE leads on capital efficiency (57.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XPO?

Per XPO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001166003), XPO Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $316.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $8.19B in total assets and $3.25B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XPO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XPO last traded at $189.57 (+3.59% on volume of 2,058,310 shares), positioning the stock +3.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($183.22) and -3.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($197.28). Across its 52-week range of $124.82 to $232.05, XPO sits at the 60.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($175.35 to $203.79).

XPO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is XPO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, XPO Inc. (XPO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is XPO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.5% event move for XPO, spanning a range between $175.35 and $203.79.

Direct Sub-Reports: XPO RQD Cockpit XPO 12M Forecast XPO Earnings & Move XPO Dividends & DRIP XPO Insiders & 13F XPO Whale Options XPO Profit Sankey XPO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

XPO — XPO Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:29Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, XPO carries an RQD Score of 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, and a verdict label of "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." Across the five pillars: Fundamental Cash Engine scores 14/20 (ROIC 10.8%; FCF yield -1.38%); Whale 13F Flow scores 11/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction scores 4/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit scores 3/20 (Beta 0.89; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet scores 16/20 (Altman Z 4.69; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 1.75). The strongest pillar is forensic balance sheet health, while insider conviction and macro regime fit are the weakest. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a cash-generation gap (negative FCF yield) and weak insider signals, offset by a comparatively sound balance-sheet profile. Valuation is a central tradeoff: per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 67.8 and forward P/E of 63.1, which leaves limited margin for error if operating results disappoint. Upside drivers would need to come from sustained improvement in free cash flow and margins; the rating itself frames the current setup as a distribution warning rather than an accumulation signal.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price183.01
Market Cap$21.43B
P/E (TTM)67.8
Forward P/E63.1
EV/EBITDA20.1
EPS (TTM)2.7
Dividend Yield0%
Beta0.89
52-Wk Range$124.82 - $232.05
ROIC %10.8%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, headlines include a Yahoo Finance report on a possible undervaluation tied to network expansion (YELLOW), a Benzinga long-horizon return piece (YELLOW), a Seeking Alpha note that Citi upgraded XPO to Buy citing trucking opportunities (GREEN, CATALYST), a Barron's piece on freight resilience amid high diesel prices (YELLOW), a Yahoo Finance valuation note on a 275% run (YELLOW), and a Seeking Alpha piece on margin versus valuation gaps (YELLOW). The catalyst-tagged item is the Citi upgrade; the remaining items are market-wire commentary. Risk watch items include the valuation gap referenced in the news and the negative FCF yield in the RQD data. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded (supply chain: NONE).

Open Questions

  • What are the EPS and free cash flow figures for the reported fiscal periods, which the financials table lists as N/A?
  • What is the FY 2023 cash balance, which is not reported?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price target, given the analyst data section is empty?
  • What institutional (13F) or insider (Form 4) holdings exist, given the holders section is empty?
  • What specific network-expansion initiative underpins the undervaluation thesis cited in news coverage?

XPO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for XPO Inc. (XPO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to XPO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

XPO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $189.57?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON XPO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on XPO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $197.65 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is XPO (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $183.01?

Welcome to the XPO (XPO Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Transportation Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (67.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $144.58 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $183.01

Pump the brakes on XPO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on XPO, but look at what you are paying: 67.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless XPO Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $217.78 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $183.01

XPO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on XPO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Transportation Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $183.01 (52-wk range $124.82 - $232.05), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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