What is CVGI's 12-month stock price target?

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2.93 (-7.6% from $3.17), with a bull-case target of $6.17 and a bear-case floor of $2.29.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CVGI / forecast

CAAS (49) SRI (40) MPAA (56) STRT (54) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is CVGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates CVGI D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 41/100.

$3.17 +0.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.17

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $128.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CVGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CVGI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $3.17 (+0.32% 1D, market cap $128.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CVGI ranks #717 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CVGI compare to CAAS and SRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), CVGI carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.5%, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, CAAS (China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 16.3%, cap $129.7M) and SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $162.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVGI?

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Per CVGI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290900), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. generated $649.0M in revenue (-10.3% YoY), -$20.5M in net income, and $34.0M in free cash flow against $391.7M in total assets and $104.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.17 (-0.13%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 5.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CVGI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CVGI SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.2% FCF Margin ($34.0M FCF) & 10.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.08 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.81-1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.76+10.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.05+3.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.17-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CVGI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CVGI currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.01) and Max Pain ($3.33) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.17.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CVGI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CVGI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CVGI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.17: 3154.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.29

$7,224

$-2,776 (-27.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.93

$9,243

$-757 (-7.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.17

$19,464

+$9,464 (+94.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$3	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$6	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$3	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CVGI)

✓Walkthrough of CVGI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CVGI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.59%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $3.23H $3.23L $3.16C $3.17VOL 349.0K

RES: $3.29SUP: $2.55SMA50: $3.01SMA200: $3.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CVGI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CVGI Butterfly Map → + Track CVGI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CVGI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CVGI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CVGI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CVGI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #717 of 1009 ⚔️ CAAS vs CVGI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CVGI vs. CAAS, SRI, MPAA, STRT)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) ranks #717 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #735 by equity capitalization ($128.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. MPAA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with CVGI at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CVGI ACTIVE Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.	D-	41/100	—	10.5%	-0.2%	+0.32%	$128.4M	Benchmark Subject
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share	D	49/100	—	19.0%	16.3%	-0.93%	$129.7M	/caas-vs-cvgi →
SRI Stoneridge Inc.	D-	40/100	—	19.9%	-24.1%	+1.59%	$162.0M	/sri-vs-cvgi →
MPAA Motorcar Parts of America Inc.	D+	56/100	16.3x	20.2%	21.6%	+0.87%	$195.2M	/mpaa-vs-cvgi →
STRT STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION	D+	54/100	12.5x	16.5%	15.2%	+1.31%	$250.0M	/strt-vs-cvgi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001290900 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) reported GAAP revenue of $649.0M (-10.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $723.4M , and -22.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$20.5M, operating cash flow of $44.6M, and free cash flow of $34.0M (+165.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CVGI closed FY2025 with $391.7M in total assets against $104.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.08, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$649.0M	-$20.5M	$44.6M	$34.0M	$391.7M	$104.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$723.4M	-$35.7M	-$33.5M	-$52.0M	$424.6M	$127.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$835.5M	$49.4M	$38.3M	$38.3M	—	—

3. CVGI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CVGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CVGI compare to CAAS and SRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVGI?

Where is CVGI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CVGI last traded at $3.17 (+0.32% on volume of 371,499 shares), positioning the stock +5.32% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.01) and -10.20% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.53). Across its 52-week range of $1.29 to $5.88, CVGI sits at the 41.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.9% ($2.82 to $3.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: CVGI RQD Cockpit CVGI 12M Forecast CVGI Earnings & Move CVGI Dividends & DRIP CVGI Insiders & 13F CVGI Whale Options CVGI Profit Sankey CVGI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 41/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CVGI — Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 41/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.17 (+0.32% 1D, market capitalization $128.4M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.2%, gross margin of 10.5%, operating margin of -0.1%, and free cash flow yield of —.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.08, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.78x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto Parts:O.E.M. Industry. The profile describes the company as operating in Auto Parts:O.E.M. With a market capitalization of $0.1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) reported $649.0M in annual revenue (up from $723.4M in FY2024, -10.3% YoY) and -$20.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($835.5M revenue, $49.4M net income) through FY2025, CVGI scaled operating cash flow to $44.6M and free cash flow to $34.0M, backed by $391.7M in total assets against $104.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 41/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.29 – $5.88 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -0.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Auto Parts:O.E.M. (Consumer Discretionary), CVGI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 10.5%.

Key Question #1: Can CVGI sustain or expand its -0.1% operating margin and -0.2% ROIC against Auto Parts:O.E.M. Peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $649.0M and free cash flow of $34.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $104.0M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is CVGI's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CVGI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CVGI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 1d ago

CVGI: Commercial Vehicle Group Inc Latest Stock Price, Analysis, News and Trading Ideas

Stocktwits report covering Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:CVGI

TradingView report covering Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) to report earnings tomorrow: here is what to expect

Yahoo Finance report covering Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) Set to Release Earnings on Monday

MarketBeat report covering Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Commercial Vehicle Group Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates

MarketBeat report covering Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 1d ago

Commercial Vehicle Group Is Showing Signs Of A Recovery, But I'm Not Biting Yet

Commercial Vehicle is a Hold as revenue growth is offset by worsening profitability and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. Read more on CVGI stock here.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 4d ago

3 low-volatility stocks we find risky

A stock with low volatility can be reassuring, but it doesn’t always mean strong long-term performance. Investors who prioritize stability may miss out on higher-reward opportunities elsewhere.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CVGI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.17?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CVGI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.92 (+24.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue is declining, but the FY 2025 FCF of $34.0M and debt reduction from $127.1M to $104.0M point to a recovering cash position.

Here is why I am bullish on CVGI here at $3.16: Revenue is declining, but the FY 2025 FCF of $34.0M and debt reduction from $127.1M to $104.0M point to a recovering cash position.. Compare CVGI's -0.1% operating margin and -0.2% ROIC against the rest of Auto Parts:O.E.M.. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $3.00 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Auto Parts:O.E.M.. If gross margin (10.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.46 (-22.2%)

Spot @ $3.16

Net income stayed negative at -$20.5M in FY 2025 with ROIC at -0.2% and FCF yield at 0%, and insider conviction scores only 5 of 20.

Careful chasing CVGI at $3.16. Net income stayed negative at -$20.5M in FY 2025 with ROIC at -0.2% and FCF yield at 0%, and insider conviction scores only 5 of 20.. Gross margin is 10.5%, but operating margin is -0.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $2.46 on multiple compression.