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Stock Ratings / Energy / TPL / earnings
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Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.2% Move

$331.68 +1.13% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $331.72

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $22.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TPL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE: TPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $331.68 (+1.13% 1D, market cap $22.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, TPL ranks #65 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TPL compare to PR and EXE in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), TPL carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.9%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.42B) and EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $20.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPL?
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Per TPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001811074), Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $798.2M in revenue (+13.1% YoY), $481.4M in net income, and $510.0M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $74.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $331.71 (+0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 63.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Cash (19)Whales (5)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$575 Bull$342 Base$267 Bear
📬 FREE TPL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TPL SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 63.9% FCF Margin ($510.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
73
Grade B$369.13-7.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$342.17-3.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$330.43+0.4% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$331.68+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TPL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, TPL faces multiple-compression risk if 47.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($351.30) or 200D SMA ($401.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($342.13) toward Bear Floor ($266.86).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.2% Swing Band

±$20.56 Expected Swing
$311.12 (-6.2%)Spot $331.68$352.24 (+6.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TPL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 65/100

Trailing EPS: $6.98 • YoY Revenue Growth: 13.1%

Model Bullish Setup (65/100)Model Risk Weight (35/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$798.2M$481.4M$510.0M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$705.8M$454.0M$458.9M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$631.6M$405.6M$389.9M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TPL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TPL
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.37%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $331.9H $331.9L $328.0C $331.7VOL 335.3K
RES: $353.8SUP: $317.3SMA50: $351.3SMA200: $401.7
$490.7$445.8$400.8$355.8$310.8RES $353.8SUP $317.3$331.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPL Butterfly Map → + Track TPL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
34.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPL)

Energy Rank #65 of 211 ⚔️ PR vs TPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (TPL vs. PR, EXE, OVV, APA)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) ranks #65 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #42 by equity capitalization ($22.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EXE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while APA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. APA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 83/100 (A-) compared with TPL at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TPL ACTIVE
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
C 65/100 47.0x — 25.9% +1.13% $22.62B Benchmark Subject
PR
Permian Resources Corporation
B 73/100 — — 8.5% +1.76% $21.42B /pr-vs-tpl →
EXE
Expand Energy Corporation
C 65/100 11.5x — 8.5% +0.12% $20.89B /exe-vs-tpl →
OVV
Ovintiv Inc.
B 75/100 16.3x — 5.7% +1.47% $20.23B /ovv-vs-tpl →
APA
APA Corporation
A- 83/100 12.6x — 26.6% +2.54% $18.05B /apa-vs-tpl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001811074

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) reported GAAP revenue of $798.2M (+13.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $705.8M , and +26.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $481.4M, operating cash flow of $545.9M, and free cash flow of $510.0M (+11.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPL closed FY2025 with $1.62B in total assets against $74.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $798.2M $481.4M $545.9M $510.0M $1.62B $74.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $705.8M $454.0M $490.7M $458.9M $1.25B $52.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $631.6M $405.6M $418.3M $389.9M $12.44B $2.91B

3. TPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE: TPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $331.68 (+1.13% 1D, market cap $22.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, TPL ranks #65 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TPL compare to PR and EXE in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), TPL carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.9%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.42B) and EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $20.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPL?

Per TPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001811074), Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $798.2M in revenue (+13.1% YoY), $481.4M in net income, and $510.0M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $74.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPL last traded at $331.68 (+1.13% on volume of 481,104 shares), positioning the stock -5.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($351.30) and -17.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($401.65). Across its 52-week range of $269.23 to $547.20, TPL sits at the 22.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($311.12 to $352.24).

TPL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TPL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is TPL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.2% event move for TPL, spanning a range between $311.12 and $352.24.

Direct Sub-Reports: TPL RQD Cockpit TPL 12M Forecast TPL Earnings & Move TPL Dividends & DRIP TPL Insiders & 13F TPL Whale Options TPL Profit Sankey TPL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TPL — Texas Pacific Land Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:18Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating is 65 / C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward," per the Roarable RQD rating. Across its five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 19 of 20 (ROIC 25.9%; FCF yield 2.25%), which is the strongest contributor and suggests high capital efficiency relative to the company's reported cash generation. Forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 (Altman Z 26; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.05), indicating a very conservatively financed profile per the Roarable RQD rating. Insider conviction scores 13 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), a moderate reading. Macro regime fit scores 12 of 20 (Beta 1.02; sector sensitivity), reflecting roughly market-level volatility sensitivity. Whale/13F flow scores 5 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), the weakest pillar in the set. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation and balance-sheet strength; the valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data, where forward P/E is 39.5 and EV/EBITDA is 36.2, and the FCF yield of 2.25% is modest. The 5 of 20 institutional-flow reading means the rating does not indicate strong recent institutional conviction. This is an analytical framing, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
327.96$22.62B4739.536.26.980.65%1.02$269.23 - $547.225.9%

Business

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry, per the SEC financials profile section. The profile identifies the company as an Energy issuer with a market capitalization of $22.6B. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification and the reported financial figures.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$798.2M$592.2M$481.4MN/A$510.0M$144.8M$74.0M
FY 2024$705.8M$539.1M$454.0MN/A$458.9M$369.8M$52.0M
FY 2023$631.6M$486.1M$405.6MN/A$389.9MN/A$2911.3M

Per the SEC financials, revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow rose across the three reported fiscal years. Market data shows operating margin of 74.2%, net margin of 60.3%, and gross margin of 0%. ROIC is 25.9%. The Roarable RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 26, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.05, which together describe a strong balance-sheet posture. Reported debt moved from $2911.3M in FY 2023 to $74.0M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials; the source does not explain this change.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Per the recent news wire, a Yahoo Finance report covers the company's Q2 earnings and asks whether to buy, sell, or hold after the release (YELLOW, market wire).
  • Per the recent news wire, a Seeking Alpha report carries a rating-upgrade headline referencing several bullish narratives (GREEN, catalyst).
  • Per the recent news wire, the company set dates for its Third Quarter 2026 earnings release and conference call (YELLOW, market wire).
  • Per the recent news wire, Investing.com reports that a 10% owner, Horizon Kinetics, bought shares for $1,363 (YELLOW, market wire).
  • Per the recent news wire, TradingView and www.debelegger.nl items cover estimates and price/chart analysis (YELLOW, market wire).
  • Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph: Sector Energy, Industry Oil & Gas Production; supply chain "NONE"; no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Risk watch items: the source data does not provide specific risk disclosures; the 52-week range of $269.23 to $547.2 and the -1.2% daily move are the only price-volatility references.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's specific revenue mix and how much of the $798.2M FY 2025 revenue comes from each business line?
  • What explains the reduction in reported debt from $2911.3M in FY 2023 to $74.0M in FY 2025?
  • Why are EPS values reported as N/A in all three periods despite reported net income?
  • What are the Q2 earnings results referenced in the news wire, and how did they compare to expectations?
  • What is the basis for the 5 of 20 institutional-flow pillar score, and what 13F data supports it?

TPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TPL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $331.68?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TPL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TPL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $354.20 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TPL (C • RQD 65/100) a Buy at $327.96?

Welcome to the TPL (Texas Pacific Land Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 65/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Oil & Gas Production. Bulls point to capital efficiency (25.9% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (47.0x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $259.09 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $327.96

Pump the brakes on TPL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TPL, but look at what you are paying: 47.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Texas Pacific Land Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $373.87 (+14.0%)
Spot @ $327.96

TPL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TPL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil & Gas Production and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $327.96 (52-wk range $269.23 - $547.20), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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