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Stock Ratings / Energy / TPL / options
PR (73) EXE (65) OVV (75) APA (83) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$331.68 +1.13% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $331.72

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $22.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TPL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE: TPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $331.68 (+1.13% 1D, market cap $22.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, TPL ranks #65 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TPL compare to PR and EXE in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), TPL carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.9%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.42B) and EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $20.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPL?
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Per TPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001811074), Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $798.2M in revenue (+13.1% YoY), $481.4M in net income, and $510.0M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $74.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $331.71 (+0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 63.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Cash (19)Whales (5)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$575 Bull$342 Base$267 Bear
📬 FREE TPL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TPL SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 63.9% FCF Margin ($510.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
73
Grade B$369.13-7.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$342.17-3.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$330.43+0.4% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$331.68+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TPL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, TPL faces multiple-compression risk if 47.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($351.30) or 200D SMA ($401.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($342.13) toward Bear Floor ($266.86).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±6.2%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TPL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TPL.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TPL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TPL
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.37%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $331.9H $331.9L $328.0C $331.7VOL 335.3K
RES: $353.8SUP: $317.3SMA50: $351.3SMA200: $401.7
$490.7$445.8$400.8$355.8$310.8RES $353.8SUP $317.3$331.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPL Butterfly Map → + Track TPL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
34.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPL)

Energy Rank #65 of 211 ⚔️ PR vs TPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (TPL vs. PR, EXE, OVV, APA)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) ranks #65 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #42 by equity capitalization ($22.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EXE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while APA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. APA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 83/100 (A-) compared with TPL at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TPL ACTIVE
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
C 65/100 47.0x — 25.9% +1.13% $22.62B Benchmark Subject
PR
Permian Resources Corporation
B 73/100 — — 8.5% +1.76% $21.42B /pr-vs-tpl →
EXE
Expand Energy Corporation
C 65/100 11.5x — 8.5% +0.12% $20.89B /exe-vs-tpl →
OVV
Ovintiv Inc.
B 75/100 16.3x — 5.7% +1.47% $20.23B /ovv-vs-tpl →
APA
APA Corporation
A- 83/100 12.6x — 26.6% +2.54% $18.05B /apa-vs-tpl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001811074

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) reported GAAP revenue of $798.2M (+13.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $705.8M , and +26.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $481.4M, operating cash flow of $545.9M, and free cash flow of $510.0M (+11.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPL closed FY2025 with $1.62B in total assets against $74.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $798.2M $481.4M $545.9M $510.0M $1.62B $74.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $705.8M $454.0M $490.7M $458.9M $1.25B $52.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $631.6M $405.6M $418.3M $389.9M $12.44B $2.91B

3. TPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE: TPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $331.68 (+1.13% 1D, market cap $22.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, TPL ranks #65 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TPL compare to PR and EXE in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), TPL carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 25.9%. By comparison, PR (Permian Resources Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.5%, cap $21.42B) and EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $20.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EXE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while APA leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPL?

Per TPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001811074), Texas Pacific Land Corporation generated $798.2M in revenue (+13.1% YoY), $481.4M in net income, and $510.0M in free cash flow against $1.62B in total assets and $74.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPL last traded at $331.68 (+1.13% on volume of 481,104 shares), positioning the stock -5.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($351.30) and -17.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($401.65). Across its 52-week range of $269.23 to $547.20, TPL sits at the 22.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($311.12 to $352.24).

TPL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TPL's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TPL.

Direct Sub-Reports: TPL RQD Cockpit TPL 12M Forecast TPL Earnings & Move TPL Dividends & DRIP TPL Insiders & 13F TPL Whale Options TPL Profit Sankey TPL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TPL — Texas Pacific Land Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:13:18Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating is 65 / C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward," per the Roarable RQD rating. Across its five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 19 of 20 (ROIC 25.9%; FCF yield 2.25%), which is the strongest contributor and suggests high capital efficiency relative to the company's reported cash generation. Forensic balance sheet scores 16 of 20 (Altman Z 26; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.05), indicating a very conservatively financed profile per the Roarable RQD rating. Insider conviction scores 13 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), a moderate reading. Macro regime fit scores 12 of 20 (Beta 1.02; sector sensitivity), reflecting roughly market-level volatility sensitivity. Whale/13F flow scores 5 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), the weakest pillar in the set. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation and balance-sheet strength; the valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data, where forward P/E is 39.5 and EV/EBITDA is 36.2, and the FCF yield of 2.25% is modest. The 5 of 20 institutional-flow reading means the rating does not indicate strong recent institutional conviction. This is an analytical framing, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
327.96$22.62B4739.536.26.980.65%1.02$269.23 - $547.225.9%

Business

Texas Pacific Land Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry, per the SEC financials profile section. The profile identifies the company as an Energy issuer with a market capitalization of $22.6B. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification and the reported financial figures.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$798.2M$592.2M$481.4MN/A$510.0M$144.8M$74.0M
FY 2024$705.8M$539.1M$454.0MN/A$458.9M$369.8M$52.0M
FY 2023$631.6M$486.1M$405.6MN/A$389.9MN/A$2911.3M

Per the SEC financials, revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow rose across the three reported fiscal years. Market data shows operating margin of 74.2%, net margin of 60.3%, and gross margin of 0%. ROIC is 25.9%. The Roarable RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 26, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.05, which together describe a strong balance-sheet posture. Reported debt moved from $2911.3M in FY 2023 to $74.0M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials; the source does not explain this change.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Per the recent news wire, a Yahoo Finance report covers the company's Q2 earnings and asks whether to buy, sell, or hold after the release (YELLOW, market wire).
  • Per the recent news wire, a Seeking Alpha report carries a rating-upgrade headline referencing several bullish narratives (GREEN, catalyst).
  • Per the recent news wire, the company set dates for its Third Quarter 2026 earnings release and conference call (YELLOW, market wire).
  • Per the recent news wire, Investing.com reports that a 10% owner, Horizon Kinetics, bought shares for $1,363 (YELLOW, market wire).
  • Per the recent news wire, TradingView and www.debelegger.nl items cover estimates and price/chart analysis (YELLOW, market wire).
  • Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph: Sector Energy, Industry Oil & Gas Production; supply chain "NONE"; no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Risk watch items: the source data does not provide specific risk disclosures; the 52-week range of $269.23 to $547.2 and the -1.2% daily move are the only price-volatility references.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's specific revenue mix and how much of the $798.2M FY 2025 revenue comes from each business line?
  • What explains the reduction in reported debt from $2911.3M in FY 2023 to $74.0M in FY 2025?
  • Why are EPS values reported as N/A in all three periods despite reported net income?
  • What are the Q2 earnings results referenced in the news wire, and how did they compare to expectations?
  • What is the basis for the 5 of 20 institutional-flow pillar score, and what 13F data supports it?

TPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TPL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $331.68?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TPL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TPL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $354.20 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TPL (C • RQD 65/100) a Buy at $327.96?

Welcome to the TPL (Texas Pacific Land Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 65/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Oil & Gas Production. Bulls point to capital efficiency (25.9% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (47.0x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $259.09 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $327.96

Pump the brakes on TPL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TPL, but look at what you are paying: 47.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Texas Pacific Land Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $373.87 (+14.0%)
Spot @ $327.96

TPL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TPL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil & Gas Production and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $327.96 (52-wk range $269.23 - $547.20), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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